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Stock market review (weekly) after 24th February, 2012.


Markets has not reacted much on Greece outcomes as it was already discounted and in other way it is better to say that market is not satisfied on that temporary solution.

INDEX
24th Feb, 2012
2/17/2011-2/24/2012 (%)
2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)




Dow
12982
0.25
1.16
Ftse
5935.13
0.51
0.9
Cac
3467.03
0.79
1.97
Dax
6864.43
0.24
2.32
Australia S&P
4306.8
2.64
-1.16
Shanghai Com.
2439.63
3.49
0.22
Hang Seng
21406.86
-0.39
3.41
Sensex
17923.57
-1.99
3.05
Russia :Titans
6642.97
2.31
2.84
Bovespa
65942.73
-0.39
3.45
Argentina: Merval
2762.61
-1.29
2.83
South Africa
34260.76
0.52
0.56

Some of the investors were praying for a little correction to enter into the market and look like that markets are giving them opportunities for that. It is interesting the see that Shanghai Composite is seeing 7 strait positive weeks.



Stock market forecast for coming week.

Markets may do a toss of coin to decide either to move on Euro zone problems or on Iran issue. Oil price is on the higher side so that is going to affect markets, especially some of the Emerging markets which are trying to reduce the interest rate. On the other side many investors are waiting for next LTRO announcement.


Let's talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (World Equity Market: Dow Jones forecast for coming ... - blog*spot )


German Dax (World Equity Market: Dax forecast for coming week ended 24th ...)


BOVESPA was flat this week but its last day’s close was far better, which is suggesting that it may test higher levels in coming days. Technical indicators are showing it as in over-bought condition but still it has arsenal to test 68000 level. If things go wrong then it can test 63000 and then it has support below 60000.
Shanghai Composite may test level above 2500 but I must say that it is in overbought condition, so in any bad news it may retest 2350 level. In spite of that I think that it has more chance to go in the upside provided the worst thing doesn’t happen.
Straits TIMES is getting support around its 20 DMA, now if it breaks that then it can test 2900 level and the worst case scenario for now is 2800 level. Though it has acted on its bullish pattern but I still think that it can test 3100 level.


Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 27th February, 2012 – Pending Home Sales

Tuesday, 28th February, 2012 – Durable Good Orders, Case Shilr home price Index, Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, 29th February, 2012 – GDP Revision, Chicago PMI, Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday, 1st march, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, Personal Income & Spending, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales.


Somewhere I was seeing that a big European bank is increasing dollar denominated assets to counter the Emerging market sell-off, I don’t know how much sound it is!  Because this year I saw huge inflow of moneys from outside into Emerging markets and it is sure that those are not short-covering, therefore I don’t understand the meaning of sell-off, especially when US dollar is dropping. But it is sure that markets are in over-bought condition so correction is due but markets may choose different timing for that may be after considering 13th march, 2012.



NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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