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Stock market review (weekly) after 3rd February, 2012.


Where the DOW is going!!!!  The only thing I know that it is going towards northern direction. I do not know how long it will go!   and how much it will go!

INDEX
3rd Feb, 2012
1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)
1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)




Dow
12862
1.59
-0.47
Ftse
5901.07
2.92
0.09
Cac
3427.92
3.29
-0.08
Dax
6766.67
3.91
1.68
Australia S&P
4251.2
-0.87
1.15
Shanghai Com.
2330.4
0.49
0
Hang Seng
20756.98
1.25
1.95
Sensex
17604.96
2.15
2.96
Russia - Titans
6573.51
4.8
1.51
Bovespa
65217.37
3.68
0.95
Argentina Merval
2810.57
-0.74
-1.26
South Africa
34386.97
1.45
0.57

Euro zone service sector growth was better but unemployment rate is not good. On the other hand Chinese export demand and Spanish economic growth were not good.



Stock market forecast for coming week.

US market reacted positively in the last day due to that employment report but result from Greece debt talk is still due. It is expected that in Monday markets will react positively on employment report. Without Greece there is Portugal problem that needs to consider. All the markets are in overbought condition and some are heavily overbought, I do not know whether any bad news from Greece is going to trigger the sell-off or not, but a correction is necessary for the health of the stock markets.

DOW has tested the level above 12800, still chart is not showing any sign that we may see a huge sell-off in coming days. So it may test higher levels, especially if any good news comes from Greece. Though I must say that it is in over-bought condition, so 12360 is important support level for it and the solid one is at 12200. If any big sale-off comes then it will find support at 11850 level.
DAX is also in over-bought condition, but I still have feeling that it can test level above 7000. But crossing 7000 level can be a hard job for it. Now if any bad news comes it may find support at 6400 and then at 6200. In spite of overbought I am positive about DAX, provided Greece news supports it.
BOVESPA is following the general trend of the market, in spite of being in heavily over-bought condition. I think in 68000 level it will face a solid resistance. BOVESPA’s moves in last few weeks suggest that some correction is necessary for it. So if it reverses its course then it will get support first at 63000 and then at 60000, 
Straits TIME was flat this week, but I am still holding the view that if good news comes from Greece then it will test higher level, or better to say that it will act on its bullish pattern. If things go contrary then it will get resistance at around 2750 level.
Shanghai Composite is overbought in this moment, but it can go more, may be around 2400. But if it drops from here then it will get support at 2200, its immediate support is at 2280. If global market faces a sale off then things may be different but without that I think even if it retests levels below 2300 it has more chance to go up from there than be down.

Reports due in coming days (from US)

Tuesday, 7th February, 2011 – Consumer Credit

Thursday, 9th February, 2012 – Unemployment Claims

Friday, 10th February, 2012 – US Trade Deficit, Consumer Sentiment.


(This week it is a brief review.)



NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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