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Showing posts from March, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 30th March, 2012.

I was expecting that higher oil price may be an obstacle for stock indexes for some of the countries but oil prices were not much disturbing this week. Spain’s budget approval was a good sign, where as most were looking at finance ministers meeting about increasing the rescue fund for Euro zone.
INDEX 30th March, 2012 3/23/2011-3/30/2012 (%) 3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%)



Dow 13212 1.01 -1.16 Ftse 5768.45 -1.48 -1.86 Cac 3423.81 -1.51 -3.3 Dax 6946.83 -0.69 -2.27 Australia S&P 4335.2 1.52 -0.14 Shanghai Com.

Dax forecast for coming week.

I was expecting DAX to test 7100 level in the early days of the week and as I said in my past week forecast it dropped in later days of the week.
DAX is in oversold zone, but I think it requires more good news to cross 7200 level. I have an expectation that it may try 7050 level in early days of the week. Right now it is getting very hard to predict more about up moves, I think traders have to take decision on daily basis. But I will not surprise if it tests 6850 level in later days of the week, obviously this will be the case if any bad news comes. Here I must say that it has created a very short-term pattern which says about level below 6800. Now in case of big sell-off, if it breaks 6600 level then it has support at 6400.


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Dow Jones forecast for coming week.

I don’t know whether it is sound to say but it looks to me that DOW may try level above 13400 in coming week. It has a support at 13050 level and in early days if it drops then I will be looking at that level. If DOW able to stay above 13000–13050 then it has more chance to test 13400. But if it breaks 13050 then we may see it to test level below 12800 and as I said in last week that worst case scenario for DOW is 11600. Sometimes it looks to me that it is trying to create a wedge which may break out in future.



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Currency market review (weekly) after 30th March, 2012.

German support to increase rescue fund helped EURO to rise in one month high, this week. On the other hand US dollar fell on Bernanke’s statement. US dollar is facing 3 strait negative weeks.

Currencies 30th March, 2012 3/23/2011-3/30/2012 (%) 3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%)



USD 78.949 -0.49 -0.55 EURO/USD 1.333 0.45 0.76 AUD/USD 1.034 -1.15 -1.23 USD/JPY 82.295 -0.07 -1.19 USD/RUPEE 51.16 0.51 1.17 Swiss FRANC 0.904

EURO forecast for coming week.

EURO is getting resistance below 1.34. last week I was expecting that it may test lower levels in middle to later part of the week, though it tested that but things were different in the last day due to finance minister’s meeting and Spain’s budget news.
If EURO continues its last day move then it may test 1.35 level and as I said in past that if it crosses that then it may trigger a pattern which can take it towards 1.42. I will think about its upside when EURO crosses 1.36, investors who took short positions may think about covering their positions if Euro goes level above 1.36. In spite of all these I am little disappoint with EURO’s move in last few days, in fact in the last day it could be much better. So that reflects that things may be already discounted in the price, therefore EURO may test lower levels on any contrary news. I will be watching 1.30 level very closely, if it breaks that then there is a chance that it may test 1.25 level. Therefore its long-term pattern which says…

USD forecast for coming week.

I was sure that if USD able to stay above level 79 in the early days of the week then it may reverse its position, but it moves were less in the later part of the week.
USD’s move in last day of the week was encouraging; it reflects that things may change in coming days. Here I must tell that some technical indicators are saying that USD is in little oversold position. Therefore the level that needs to look is 80.50 level, if it crosses that then I will talk about 82. But if things do not improve in coming days then I have to think about the negative one which I said during last few weeks, that is USD may drop below 78 and the triggers the bearish pattern. Recent political events also support that move. This negative pattern can take USD around 75 level. So again I want to repeat that 78–82 becomes an important zone for it. I think person who has created long positions, for them 77–77.5 is the important level and for short position the level is 81.

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Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 30th March, 2012.

This week it was Spain which continued the Euro zone show, its local election did not reflect much impression in Bond market but the general strike showed the challenges in front of their government. Their Bonds rose as they have passed their budget. This week, Italy’s Bond auction was good. German Bunds continued their gains this week in spite of better business confidence report in early days of the week. On the other hand it is good to see the change in German position about increasing the rescue funds for Euro zone.

YIELDs (US) 30th March, 2012 3/23/2011-3/30/2012 (%) 3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%)



2-Year Treasury 0.335 -5.37 -3.01 5-Year Treasury 1.039 -4.15 -2.87 10-Year Treasury 2.214 -0.89 -2.62 30-Year Treasury 3.341 0.97 -2.88
Bernanke’s speech did not reflect much in US Treasury prices. This month US Treasuries saw one of the biggest monthly drops. The movement of 30-year US Treasury was different; I don’t know for sure that whether it is signaling some thing.

Stock market review (weekly) after 23rd March, 2012.

Performance of the stock indexes are not much encouraging post Greece bail-out period, that means market is not satisfied with the whole episode or market is not relying on those better economic reports of the US economy!I don’t have the answer of it, yet. But I would like to see how long this can go.

INDEX 23rd March, 2012 3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%) 3/09/2011-3/16/2012 (%)



Dow 13080 -1.16 2.4 Ftse 5854.89 -1.86 1.21 Cac 3476.18 -3.3 3.08 Dax 6995.62 -2.27 4.03 Australia S&P 4270.4 -0.14