Skip to main content

Currency market review (weekly) after 9th March, 2012.

After better payroll report, I think now speculation will reduce about Fed’s QE-3. Beside contraction in the economy, collective action clauses and US payroll report are the reasons of EURO’s drop.

9th March, 2012
3/02/2011-3/09/2012 (%)
2/24/2011-3/02/2012 (%)

S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

Slower economic growth, deficit in trade balance was some ingredients which affected AUD this week. Bigger matter for AUD would be the rate cut but market is not satisfied about it. I think authorities must consider about reducing targeted economic growth in China. YEN dropped to around 10 month low level against the dollar.

Currency market forecast for coming week.

Let talk about the currencies in coming week.

This week AUD choose to drop from 1.08 level but I still think it is just taking time to test higher levels. Interest rate is becoming a big matter for AUD. If it chooses to go more in the downside then 1.04 is a good support level for it.

EURO (EURO's forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012. - blog*spot)

USD (USD's forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012. - blog*spot)


Some corrections were due in Japanese YEN, but its movement in later days reflects that 85 level is not far from it. In fact technical indicators also permit it now. In the downside 80 is a good support for it.

Swiss FRANC was due to test 0.92 level and last day’s move suggests that it may test little more. But testing 0.95 level is too much of expectation for now. On the other hand as I said in last week that if it follows the lower high and lower low pattern then later it may drop from that 0.92 level.
I was expecting that Brazilian REAL will get resistance at 1.78, its move in the last day was big and it reflects that there are more to come. In this run it is good to see that it did not break 1.673, so the chance about its long-term up move is still open. If it able to cross 1.80 then it may test higher levels in coming days. In the downside 1.70 is a good support for it.
South African RAND was unable to test 7.8, though it went above 7.6. Last day’s move was good which suggests it may try 7.8 in coming days. In the downside if it breaks 7.40 then it can drop more.

[Currencies are given against US dollar unless specifically told. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.


Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.