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Currency market review (weekly) after 9th March, 2012.

After better payroll report, I think now speculation will reduce about Fed’s QE-3. Beside contraction in the economy, collective action clauses and US payroll report are the reasons of EURO’s drop.

Currencies
9th March, 2012
3/02/2011-3/09/2012 (%)
2/24/2011-3/02/2012 (%)




USD
79.959
0.7
1.28
EURO/USD
1.312
-0.53
-1.93
AUD/USD
1.058
-1.67
0.65
USD/JPY
82.355
0.99
1.07
USD/RUPEE
50.01
1.34
0.59
Swiss FRANC
0.919
0.66
2.01
S.African RAND
7.56
0.59
-0.91
Brazilian REAL
1.783
3.06
1.17
Mexican PESO
12.625
-0.91
-1.22

Slower economic growth, deficit in trade balance was some ingredients which affected AUD this week. Bigger matter for AUD would be the rate cut but market is not satisfied about it. I think authorities must consider about reducing targeted economic growth in China. YEN dropped to around 10 month low level against the dollar.




Currency market forecast for coming week.

Let talk about the currencies in coming week.

This week AUD choose to drop from 1.08 level but I still think it is just taking time to test higher levels. Interest rate is becoming a big matter for AUD. If it chooses to go more in the downside then 1.04 is a good support level for it.

EURO (EURO's forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012. - blog*spot)


USD (USD's forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012. - blog*spot)

 

Some corrections were due in Japanese YEN, but its movement in later days reflects that 85 level is not far from it. In fact technical indicators also permit it now. In the downside 80 is a good support for it.

Swiss FRANC was due to test 0.92 level and last day’s move suggests that it may test little more. But testing 0.95 level is too much of expectation for now. On the other hand as I said in last week that if it follows the lower high and lower low pattern then later it may drop from that 0.92 level.
I was expecting that Brazilian REAL will get resistance at 1.78, its move in the last day was big and it reflects that there are more to come. In this run it is good to see that it did not break 1.673, so the chance about its long-term up move is still open. If it able to cross 1.80 then it may test higher levels in coming days. In the downside 1.70 is a good support for it.
South African RAND was unable to test 7.8, though it went above 7.6. Last day’s move was good which suggests it may try 7.8 in coming days. In the downside if it breaks 7.40 then it can drop more.


[Currencies are given against US dollar unless specifically told. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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