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Currency market review (weekly) after 16th March, 2012.

EURO is out of the Greece problem for now but still it is in uncertain zone. What will be the situation if a country like Portugal demands a same type of write downs in their debt too! I think it may become one of the biggest problems in coming future.

Currencies
16th March, 2012
3/09/2011-3/16/2012 (%)
3/02/2011-3/09/2012 (%)




USD
79.781
-0.22
0.7
EURO/USD
1.317
0.38
-0.53
AUD/USD
1.059
0.09
-1.67
USD/JPY
83.34
1.19
0.99
USD/RUPEE
50.31
0.59
1.34
Swiss FRANC
0.916
-0.33
0.66
S.African RAND
7.548
-0.16
0.59
Brazilian REAL
1.8
0.95
3.06
Mexican PESO
12.658
0.26
-0.91

In last two days of the week USD reacted on CPI and consumer confidence data. Different reports from Australian showed the market expectation of a rate cut; I think many investors are frustrated with AUD. Most of the Asian currencies drop this week due to demand for US dollar and also for Chinese report. This week SNB maintained its 1.20 franc per EURO rate.



Currency market forecast for coming week.

Let talk about different currencies for coming week.

As time is going AUD makes things hard for it to trigger the medium term bullish pattern. It got the support of 1.04 level, last two day’s figures were better. I think AUD’s move in coming days will decide whether it is going to cross 1.08 or not. This 1.04–1.08 becomes an important level for it. If it somehow breaks 1.04 then it can test 1.01 level.

EURO (EURO's forecast for coming week ended 16th March, 2012.)


USD (USD's forecast for coming week ended 16th March, 2012.)

 

I was expecting that Japanese YEN may test 85 level but it failed to do that in this week. Technical indicators are still not showing too much overbought position for it; few days corrections are making it more comfortable position to test 85 level. So in spite of being in over-bought position I think that YEN may test 85 level in coming days, but if it somehow reverses, then it will get initial support at around 81 range.

Swiss FRANC just followed my words in last week. So still it is following lower highs and lower lows pattern. If it breaks 0.895 in coming days then it is going to again confirm that. But before that 0.91 is initial support level for it; if FRANC bounces from there then it may break 0.93 level in coming days.
Brazilian REAL is trying to break 1.80, as technical indicators are saying that it can easily break this level in coming days. If it breaks 1.80 then it will try to test 1.86 level in coming days. In the downside 1.70 is a good support for it.
South African RAND again tried 7.8, as I said in my last week review. What I think that it is making a channel, if this is true then it is not going to break 7.5 in coming days. Therefore it has more chance to go in the upside. In the downside if it breaks 7.40 then it can drop more.




[Currencies are given against US dollar unless specifically told. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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