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Currency market review (weekly) after 23rd March, 2012.


Chinese manufacturing report as well as the Euro-zone data was disappointing. Dollar rose against most of the currencies, where as EURO went to higher levels due to Greek parliamentary approval for international bail-out.

Currencies
23rd March, 2012
3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%)
3/09/2011-3/16/2012 (%)




USD
79.345
-0.55
-0.22
EURO/USD
1.327
0.76
0.38
AUD/USD
1.046
-1.23
0.09
USD/JPY
82.35
-1.19
1.19
USD/RUPEE
50.9
1.17
0.59
Swiss FRANC
0.909
-0.76
-0.33
S.African RAND
7.693
1.92
-0.16
Brazilian REAL
1.81
0.56
0.95
Mexican PESO
12.746
0.69
0.26

Concern over China’s manufacturing report AUD declined, since inflation is still under control so expectation for rate cut is still there in the menu of investors. On the other hand unexpected trade surplus helped YEN to rise again most of the currencies but later things were not same.




Currency market forecast for coming week.

Let talk about different currencies for coming week.

AUD’s moves are becoming very frustrated, as it is still following 1.04 –1.08 range. What I think that if it breaks 1.04 in coming days then it has more chance to test 1.02 level. In the upside 1.06 is the immediate target for it. I have a feeling interest rate decision will be the next trigger point for it.

EURO (EURO's forecast for coming week ended 23rd March, 2012. )


Practically USD was flat this week and I am still holding my past week view for it. It had a chance to cross 80 levels but things were different in the last day. So if I have to give quick view, I will say that if USD does not fall below 79 in early period of the week then it has more chance to go in the upside. But if things become negative and it drops continuously then it will trigger the negative pattern if it drops below 78. I will say that it will not act on that bullish pattern if it breaks 78 in the lower side and it will not act on negative pattern if it breaks 82 on the higher side. So this 78–82 becomes an important zone for it. I think person who has created long positions, for them 78 is the important level and for short position the level is 81.

Japanese YEN failed to test 85, if this drop continues in the early days of the week then it may test 80.50 support level but before that 81.50 is the initial support for it.  If things change then it will again try higher levels.

Look like Swiss FRANC is going to follow lower highs and lower lows pattern so therefore 0.895 is important support level for it. If FRANC bounces then it may try 0.93 level in coming days.

I was sure that Brazilian REAL will break 1.80 level but it is getting good resistance at 1.82 level. REAL is forming confusing pattern, on one side it can go more higher levels if it able to break 1.88, on the other hand it is forming a negative pattern where from it can drop in future. Looking at this type of movement I think 1.67–1.88 is the range for REAL, where events from around the world will decide its direction.
I was sure that South African RAND will not break 7.5 in the downside, last week I was talking that it is following a channel and I am still holding that opinion. I think for the coming month the range will be 7.5–7.8 and in the middle to later part of the week there is a chance that it may drop from its high, but things will be different if it breaks 7.8 in the upside.



[Currencies are given against US dollar unless specifically told. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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