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Stock market review (weekly) after 16th March, 2012.

So there was no QE-3 announcement, as I said in last week that environment does not permit it. Stock indexes performed this week with Euro zone news and better US reports, but consumer confidence report was not good in the last day.

INDEX
16th March, 2012
3/09/2011-3/16/2012 (%)
3/02/2011-3/09/2012 (%)




Dow
13232
2.4
-0.42
Ftse
5965.58
1.21
-0.29
Cac
3594.83
3.08
-0.39
Dax
7157.82
4.03
-0.59
Australia S&P
4276.2
1.52
-1.43
Shanghai Com.
2404.74
-1.42
-0.86
Hang Seng
21317.85
1.09
-2.21
Sensex
17466.2
-0.21
-0.76
Russia :Titans
6787.8
1.16
-1.8
Bovespa
67684.13
1.47
-1.59
Argentina: Merval
2765.22
3.03
-2.66
South Africa
34221.62
0.87
-0.76

US authorities must be worried about CPI as well as many Emerging nations who are not yet confident about reduction of interest rates; to some extent they are quite correct. China’s trade deficit was shocking news for market.



Stock market forecast for coming week.

Stock indexes in the developed markets are showing better results than many other nations, where as stock indexes of the emerging countries are in less over-bought zone. As I said in my past weekly reviews that crude price is going to be a deciding factor for most of the nations who depends on import, as now we are also seeing its effect on developed nation’s inflation figures. If I look into last few years then now it is not the worst time for stock market, in fact situation is recovering to some extent. So I want to see how big players adjust themselves with the change in environment!

Let's talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 16th March, 2012.)


German Dax (DAX forecast for coming week ended 16th March, 2012.)

 


BOVESPA tried 69000 level but it faced corrections in last few days, which is different. If it does not break 66000 in coming days then it has more chance to go for higher levels. It has initial support at 65000, if things go wrong then it can test 63000 and then it has support below 60000.
Shanghai Composite failed to test 2500 level. Looks like it forms a short-term double top pattern, so if condition is bad then it can fall. In the downside it has support around 2330 level. As I said in my last week review that I am still confident about its medium term bullish pattern even if it visits level around 2300. But last days move was better and technical indicators suggest that it can go more in the upside. Now for that it has to cross its previous tops, then I can think about 2500.
Straits TIMES made moves in the early days of the week as I said in my last weekly review but its move in the later stage was disappointing. This reflects that it is getting resistance below 3050. It is in overbought condition and its last two day’s closings were not good. So if any correction comes then it may easily go around 2900. I think it is forming a patter and we will get a picture of that in next week. If Strait TIMES follows the global positive trend then my previous levels is still exist for it, which is level around 3100.


Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 19th March, 2012 – Housing Market Index

Tuesday, 20th March, 2012 – Housing Starts

Wednesday, 21st March, 2012 – Existing Home Sales

Thursday, 22nd March, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, FHFA Home Price, Leading Economic Index.

Friday, 23rd March, 2012 – New Home Sales

Now a feeling good factor is working around different stock indexes. USD is not giving any particular direction of the equity market and one thing I am watching that stock indexes are performing differently. If we conclude that stock indexes of US and Euro-zone will not correct substantially unless their economies come into track or they are politically in a strong position, then things may be different, otherwise now it is the perfect time to conclude it in a different way.


NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.  

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