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Stock market review (weekly) after 23rd March, 2012.

Performance of the stock indexes are not much encouraging post Greece bail-out period, that means market is not satisfied with the whole episode or market is not relying on those better economic reports of the US economy!  I don’t have the answer of it, yet.  But I would like to see how long this can go.

23rd March, 2012
3/16/2011-3/23/2012 (%)
3/09/2011-3/16/2012 (%)

Australia S&P
Shanghai Com.
Hang Seng
Russia :Titans
Argentina: Merval
South Africa

Chinese manufacturing report and Euro zone figures are the main reasons of this correction that some of the stock indexes faced this week. Shanghai Composite is facing 3 negative weeks in a row. Investors were focused with apple stock this week as some are seeing this as big opportunity.

Stock market forecast for coming week.

Beside oil price, rate cut is going to be a matter in coming future as most of the countries are holding their rates. Commodity prices are vulnerable for any slow down in bigger economies, so commodity exporting countries can feel the heat. Coming week will be the quarter and year end for many funds, so a process of window dressing will come in their balance sheet and that is going to effect stock markets. I have a feeling that after so much of buying in recent months, market may face liquidity problem.

Let's talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 23rd March, 2012.)


German Dax (DAX forecast for coming week ended 23rd March, 2012.)


BOVESPA is getting support at 66000 level. In the early days we may see a reversal, as technical indicators are saying short-term oversold condition. Therefore it will get initial resistance at 67000 and if it breaks that then it will find good resistance at 69000. But if BOVESPA drops from early days then it has initial support at 65000, if things go wrong then it can test 63000 and then it has support below 60000.
Shanghai Composite acted on the double top pattern which it created in last week. Technical indicators are saying that it is in short-term over-sold condition; in spite of that it has a chance to test lower levels. I am still confident about its medium term bullish pattern even if it visits level below 2300. In the upside it has resistance around 2400.
Straits TIMES is far from 2900 but still it can test that level and also it can trigger the bearish pattern which I said in last week. Now 3000–3020 level is its initial resistance, if it able to cross that then we will think about 3100. On the other hand if it doesn’t cross level around 2900 then there is a chance that it can test higher levels, though it will take much time for that.

Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 26th March, 2012 – Fed Nat Bus Index, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Index.

Tuesday, 27th March, 2012 – Case Shir. Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, 28th March, 2012 –  Durable Goods Orders

Thursday, 29th March, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, Final Q4 gdp Review, Corporate Profits.

Friday, 30th March, 2012 – Personal Spending/Income, Chicago Area PMI, Consumer Sentiment.


Few days ago one of my friend share his dream with me, he told me that he saw that most of those liquidity in the developed market are coming into stock markets of Emerging nations and in turn their central banks are investing in safe heavens like US treasury market. ( Will Emerging nations create their own fixed income market?)

Fundamentally I am confused about the future of financial market; I don’t understand how situation is going to improve! I think this week same type of manifestation came from IMF too.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.  


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DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
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