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Stock market review (weekly) after 2nd March, 2012.

Market has ignored S&P and it also did not react much on LTRO. In US market, Dow is touching 13000 level though it couldn’t stay there. But things are little different for S&P 500.

2nd March, 2012
2/24/2011-3/02/2012 (%)
2/17/2011-2/24/2012 (%)

Australia S&P
Shanghai Com.
Hang Seng
Russia :Titans
Argentina: Merval
South Africa

Shanghai composite is facing 8 strait positive weeks, which is quite outstanding and their recent manufacturing report also supports that. Some of the Emerging markets are performing better and economic reports are making things worse for some of these nations.

Stock market forecast for coming week.

I am repeating the same line that, major challenge for stock indexes in coming days will be higher Oil prices. Most of the markets are in over-bought level but still they are showing chances of breaking specific levels in the upside. I don’t know whether we are going to see 14000 level for DOW because USD is not showing us that type of bullish sentiment, neither it is showing any sell-off trend. So market is in typical point, probably we have to consider different matters to get any conclusion.

Let's talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 2nd March, 2012.)

German Dax (Dax forecast for coming week ended 2nd March, 2012. - blog*spot)

In spite of being in overbought condition, BOVESPA is testing around 68000 level. Like past, it has the arsenal to test 69000 level. But then it will be in too much overbought condition. Now 66000 is its initial support level and if things go wrong then it can test 63000 and then it has support below 60000.
Shanghai Composite is again trying to test 2500 level. I think even if it goes past 2500 level it will find tough resistances for more upside movements. In the downside for any bad news it may retest 2350 level.
Straits TIMES is again trying higher levels, comparing to the Dow and Dax it is cheaper. So if global sentiment becomes positive then it will test 3100 level. In the contrary if it breaks 2950 then it will make a short-term bearish pattern, which can take it to around 2860 level.

Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 5th March, 2012 – Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index.

Wednesday, 7th March, 2012 – ADP Jobs Report, Productivity.

Thursday, 8th March, 2012 – Unemployment Claims

Friday, 9th March, 2012 – Monthly Employment Report

Euro zone debt crisis is gradually faded down, the huge liquidity which different banks are getting from ECB are supposed to be drained in the economy. But I don’t think it is the only purpose of the easy liquidity. Because if it is true then where from this huge inflows are coming into equity market in recent days!  If we think about recent past, then we can remember that stock and bond markets have rallied since ECB’s first 3year loan.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.


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