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Stock market review (weekly) after 9th March, 2012.


It was very strange that in spite of so many good things Dow gave lower closing, I have doubt that default insurance payout of Greece is the only reason behind it!  If we think about others like China, Japan, Germany and other Emerging nations, they showed bad picture this week.

INDEX
9th March, 2012
3/02/2011-3/09/2012 (%)
2/24/2011-3/02/2012 (%)




Dow
12922
-0.42
-0.04
Ftse
5894.17
-0.29
-0.4
Cac
3487.48
-0.39
0.98
Dax
6880.21
-0.59
0.83
Australia S&P
4212
-1.43
-0.78
Shanghai Com.
2439.46
-0.86
0.86
Hang Seng
21,086
-2.21
0.73
Sensex
17503.24
-0.76
-1.59
Russia :Titans
6709.66
-1.8
2.86
Bovespa
66703.96
-1.59
2.79
Argentina: Merval
2683.96
-2.66
-0.19
South Africa
33926.2
-0.76
-0.22

Though China cut its growth forecast but their inflation figure was better. Thought some are saying that bad things for china may become positive for US, but I don’t believe on that especially when China has huge investments in US.



Stock market forecast for coming week.

Most of the stock indexes were testing specific levels and this week’s corrections place them in a better condition to test those levels. After this week’s correction they are also in less over-bought condition. Asian indexes are due to perform on the events of Euro zone and payroll reports of US.


Let's talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012.)


German Dax (Dax forecast for coming week ended 9th March, 2012. - blog*spot)

 

Like most of the indexes, BOVESPA faced little corrections this week and that makes it more confident to test higher levels. Technical indicators are also in better condition now to support higher moves. If global trend remain positive then we can expect 69000 in coming days. If things go wrong then it can test 63000 and then it has support below 60000.
Shanghai Composite bounced from around 2350 level, last few days moves were better and it suggests that it may again test higher levels but as I said in my last week review that it will face tough resistance in the level above 2500. In the downside it has support around 2330 level. Though it is in early stage but if Shanghai Composite visit level around 2300 then it will be making a bullish pattern, therefore it may test up to above 2700.
Straits TIMES has tested level below 2950 but it did not stay there, as such its bounced was good. Now it is not in overbought condition. Its move in the last day was not good, so if TIMES doesn’t able to go higher levels in the early days of the coming week then it may test level below 2900. But as we have good things from Greece and payroll reports from US, so we can expect that it may test level above 3000 or may be around 3100.


Reports due in coming days (from US)

Tuesday, 13th March, 2012 – Small Bus. Opt. Index. Retail Sales, FOMC announcement.

Wednesday, 14th March, 2012 – Bernanke speaks

Thursday, 15th March, 2012 – Unemployment Claim, Producer Price Index, NY State Mfg. Index, Phila Fed Index.

Friday, 16th March, 2012 – Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment.


So what is the significance of this US payroll report, it is sure that we are not going to see QE-3 at least in this month, that not means that we are going to get it at the end of April, 2012. Actually I will be thinking about QE-3 if markets are facing a sell-off and they are on the verge of bear market. As I said in my yearly review that this is an election year for US, so we may not see that type of events. But if situation in rest of the world become worse then what will be the outcome! I am not saying that rest of the world will drag down US but definitely there will be some effect of it.


NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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