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Showing posts from April, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 27th April, 2012.

Global recovery is heavily threatened by bad to worse macro economic reports and by rating downgrades. Financial market is again feeling the environment of last year; in fact I would say that it is more this time. China and many other major Emerging nations are also getting in trouble. Now it is no meaning to discuss the real cause behind S&P downgrades, only thing I can say market is in risk.

INDEX 27th April, 2012 4/20/2012-4/27/2012 (%) 4/13/2012-4/20/2012 (%)



Dow 13228 1.55 1.4 Ftse 5777.11 0.09 2.13 Cac 3266.27 2.44 -0.02 Dax 6801.32 0.76 2.52 Australia S&P 4362.1 -0.1 0.99

Dax forecast for coming week.

I was expecting little more corrections in DAX and it got that in the earlier days of this week.
Now days, things are changing in a moment, as stock indexes are getting vulnerable to any news. It looks to me that DAX is making a lower base at around 6500 level, though I am not fully confident about this level. Last few day’s moves were very encouraging and it reflects that DAX may test more in the upside, yet I am not sure about any specific levels. But as I said in last week, that 7200 is too much of expectation in this moment. Coming days will be very frustrating if DAX moves around 6650-7000 level. Here I must say that DAX is in short-term over-bought zone, so I will not surprise if it tries to test lower levels at some point of time in coming week. If DAX breaks 6500 support level then next important range for it is 6400. In case of any big sell off we may see DAX below 6200.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week.

In my last week review I was not totally sure that DOW will cross 13200 level but as I said that it is in over-sold zone, so there was a chance of that. It is good to see that it did not drop in later days of this week.
Now the early days of the coming week will be very important for DOW, it is in short-term over-bought zone but still it can test higher levels. I am saying this in spite of the fact that last day it made an uncertain figure. So even if it remains flat in Monday, I think it may decide the trend in next day. If DOW gets down in early days of the week then important level to watch is 13000-13050. I think even if it tests that level, there is a chance that it may bounce into higher levels from that range. Here I must say that I am not sure that whether this 13300 level is good for making short position. Now if it drops below 12900 then there is a possibility that it may test level below 12700, though this is subject to new bad news. Worse case scenario for DOW is 11600.
NOTE:…

USD forecast for coming week.

I was expecting that USD may try to recover ground in later days of this week but it is still dropping.
So I am not sure that whether it will start to reverse its moves in earlier days of the coming week but the thing I know that it is in over-sold zone. That option which I told during last few weeks is still open, so if USD drops below 78 and the triggers the bearish pattern. This negative pattern can take USD around 75 level. Since USD is in over-sold zone so we can expect an up move, therefore it can get initial resistance at 79.5 and if it breaks that then I will talk about 80.5. For this moment 82 is very far. Thought I give certain specific levels for USD but I think it will not see the huge drops or big jumps in coming days, especially if I consider the events which are going on. I want to repeat which I said during last few weeks that 78–82 becomes an important zone for it. I think person who has created long positions, for them 77–77.5 is the important level and for short positi…

EURO forecast for coming week.

EURO continued its move, which I was expecting but still 1.34 look far from it.
Last day’s move is showing that it can go more in the upside but still I am not sure about that. So I am repeating my earlier stand, that it will face resistance at 1.34. If EURO crosses 1.35 then it may trigger a pattern which can take it towards 1.42. I will think about its upside when EURO crosses 1.36, investors who took short positions may think about covering their positions if Euro goes level above 1.36. EURO is technically in over-bought zone so it has a chance to test lower levels, here its initial support is at 1.30. Now if it breaks 1.30 level then EURO can go near about 1.25 range. Therefore its long-term pattern which says that EURO will be around 1.15 may become true. I still think that EURO is moving in between a range, so it is hard for it to break that trend and macro events also support that.

 [EURO is given against US dollar, unless specifically told.]
NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of thi…

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 27th April, 2012.

S&P again downgraded Spain for the 2nd times this year and again this rating downgrade is creating a panic environment around the financial world. Italy was lucky that their Bond auctions especially in the last day were not affected by that downgrade. In the last day most of the Bond yields of Euro-zone nations were in higher side, except in Germany but these things were different in early to middle of this week. German Bund rose after a report showed that Euro zone economic confidence declined in April.
Last week I was talking about the political uncertainties due to French election but this week it came from Dutch side, as such it helped to increase the spread between 10-year Dutch Bonds and German Bunds into a 3year high.
In the earlier days US Treasury Notes rose on speculation of Bernanke’s statement. I am confused about his statement; it looks like that he is also not sure about the future.
YIELDs (US) 27th April, 2012 4/20/2012-4/27/2012 (%) 4/13/2012-4/20/2012 (%)



2-Year Treasu…

Stock market review (weekly) after 20th April, 2012.

Many Emerging countries have started to believe that inflation is not going to leave them. So in spite of higher inflation rate they are reducing the rates, to increase the growth rate. In same way it will be better for market to understand it clearly that Euro zone debt problem is not going to leave us easily. As I said in past that if these problems come (in such a fashion) from a bigger country like US or Japan, then we can define it other way. IMF gets $430 bn more, which may give some sort of satisfaction.


INDEX 20th April, 2012 4/13/2012-4/20/2012 (%) 4/5/2012-4/13/2012 (%)



Dow 13029.26 1.4 -1.62 Ftse 5772.15 2.13 -1.26 Cac 3188.58 -0.02 -3.94 Dax 6750.12 2.52 -2.82 Australia S&P 4366.5 0.99

Dow Jones forecast for coming week.

Last week I told that if DOW goes up in early days of the week then it will get resistance at 13100. I was pretty sure that if DOW does not drop in early days of this week then it will not drop much.
Now it looks to me that it may again re-test 13100 but that is a narrow possibility. Here I am not too much confident that DOW will cross 13200 in coming days, this is in spite of the fact that some indicators are supporting the higher moves. Looking at the long-term chart, I have a feeling that DOW has a chance to drop more in later days of the coming week. If it drops below 12900 then there is a possibility that it may test level below 12700, though this is subject to new bad news. Worse case scenario for DOW is 11600.


NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dax forecast for coming week.

I was expecting little more correction in early days of this week but it did not.
Still I think that DAX is due for little more correction and therefore the important level to watch is 6550, if it breaks that then its next support is at 6400. Now in case of any big sell off we may see DAX below 6200. Technical indicators are not reflecting that DAX is in very over-bought zone so in the upside it can test up to 7000 again. Right now expecting 7200 is too much for DAX.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week.

I was expecting that if USD does not test higher levels in the early days of the week then there is more chance that it will drop in later days. This week 79.6 level act as a good resistance for it.
It can drop more from here, but therefore it will get initial support at around 78.6 level. I am expecting this drop in early to middle of the coming week. I still think that there is an option that USD may drop below 78 and the triggers the bearish pattern. This negative pattern can take USD around 75 level. If it drops in early days then it has a chance to reverse its position in later period of the coming week. 80.5 is looking tough job for USD but if it breaks that then I will be thinking about 82. Thought I give certain specific levels for USD but I think it will not see the huge drop or big jumps in coming days, especially if I consider the events which are going on. I want to repeat which I said during last few weeks that 78–82 becomes an important zone for it. I think person who has …

EURO forecast for coming week.

EURO surprise me little this week, though I was sure that it will not cross 1.34 level.
Now if it continues these moves then EURO can easily test higher levels in early days of the coming week. It will face resistance at 1.34. If EURO crosses 1.35 then it may trigger a pattern which can take it towards 1.42. I will think about its upside when EURO crosses 1.36, investors who took short positions may think about covering their positions if Euro goes level above 1.36. Though EURO is moving in between a range but I think situation may different in longer timeframe, if macro things go this way. It has still chance to test lower levels, which can take EURO near 1.25 range. Therefore its long-term pattern which says that EURO will be around 1.15 may become true.
[EURO is given against US dollar, unless specifically told.]
NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 20th April, 2012.

Euro zone worries continued this with more active participation of Italy. The outcome of Spanish auction was good but they must be worried about those higher yields. The borrowing cost of Spain is rising during couple of months and this week it again created a bail-out situation, when it’s 10-Year Bond yield reached above 6%. German government Bunds dropped after investor confidence report but spread between German Bund yields and Spanish & Italian Bond yields are increasing. Europe governments were warned for relaxing, which may work in coming days and I think now the country heads should stop about predicting contraction.

US Treasuries hold their gains in starting of the week but later they declined due to good Bill auction in Spain, macro reports and lastly outcomes of G-20 meeting affected them.
YIELDs (US) 20th April, 2012 4/13/2012-4/20/2012 (%) 4/5/2012-4/13/2012 (%)



2-Year Treasury 0.268 0 -21.87 5-Year Treasury 0.842 -0.82 -15.69 10-Year Treasury 1.959 -1.41 -8.73 30-Year Treasury 3.118 -0…