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Showing posts from May, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 25th May, 2012.

One of my friends was asking me about Nostradamuspredictions (21st December, 2012!!!), practically I don’t believe these things but if Greece exits Euro then it will open a Pandora’s Box. I think then many astrologers may think twice about 21st December, 2012.
This week Euro zone leaders are talking about Euro-bond but for that they need to melt an iceberg, which up to now they failed to do that. Market is closely watching new interventions of Spanish government.
INDEX 25th May, 2012 5/18/2012-5/25/2012 (%) 5/11/2012-5/18/2012 (%)



Dow 12454.83 0.69 -3.52 Ftse 5351.53 1.59 -5.52 Cac 3047.94 1.33 -3.89 Dax 6339.94 1.09 -4.69 Australia S&P 4029.2 -0.43 -5.57

EURO forecast for coming week.

Last week I was expecting that EURO may move upside in the beginning of the week and it is good to see that it tested level below its initial resistance of 1.29. 

I was expecting that EURO may get little support around 1.26 but it took no time to break that. But it is good to see that EURO got support exactly at 1.25. Last week I was talking that many short positions will come if EURO tests higher levels, though I don’t have the data but I think that option was less, considering the level it moved in the upside.
On medium term basis 1.26–1.27 was a very good support level for EURO and now it is below that level. Its bearish pattern was indicating that it might go around 1.25 but some technical indicators are saying that still it can drop little more in the down side. But as it looks like that EURO is making a base near 1.25 level so it may bounce back for sometime. So in the early to middle days of the coming week EURO may test higher levels may be around 1.27, where it will get initial …

USD forecast for coming week.

I was expecting that USD will not drop much in early days of this week; as such it bounced back before 80.5 level. It is good to see that it broke 81.70 level.
During this month USD goes up from level around 79, it reminds me September, 2011. But it does not mean that USD is going to drop from here. It is true that technically it is in over-bought zone but still it can go in the upside. If any minor corrections come then it will get initial resistance at 81.50 and then the stronger one is at 80.50 level.
In past few months (though I forget to mention it during last few weeks!) I told about a medium to long-term pattern of USD which it will triggers if it crosses 82 and this pattern can take USD near around 88–89 level. USD started to build this pattern in September, 2011. Now I am not sure about the exact timing when it will test that 88–89 level because it may take more time for it, but ultimately it will trigger that. So considering that pattern I don’t think that USD is going to dro…

Dow Jones forecast for coming week.

Last week I was expecting that DOW may get initial resistance 12600. DOW is not in over-sold zone as it was in past week so if it doesn’t able to break this 12600 level then there is a chance that DOW may drop from here. Therefore 12200 is the important level but if DOW chooses to drop below 12100 then next important support level is 11800. For coming week emphasis should be given on 12200 level in the downside.
Though DOW is getting resistance around 12600 but its closing in last few days were better considering its lower positions. If it goes in the upside and breaks 12600 level then next resistance level is at 12800. I want give emphasis on the movements in early days of the coming week. Because frankly speaking it has a chance to move either way. But if I have to choose between options then I will go for bearish view if it doesn’t able to break 12600 in early to middle of the coming week. I am still expecting that DOW is going to make a bullish pattern in future, provided it does no…

Dax forecast for coming week.

Last week I mentioned that DAX is making a base around 6200 level. I was talking about an aggressive call that DAX may bounce around Tuesday to Wednesday this week, as such it tried to bounce in Tuesday but it was getting a resistance there.
Chart is not giving any clear signal. If we consider that DAX made a base around 6200 level then it is expected that it will bounce from here. But I think it has the chance to go up if it able to cross 6400 considerably. For now 6600 may act as a good resistance for DAX. Now if it follows the recent trend then it may not go more than around 6500 level (50% Fibonacci retracement level). On the other hand there is a chance that DAX is making lower highs and lower lows, therefore it may drop more, may be around middle to later part of the coming week. If it breaks 6200 then 6100 is the next support level. In worse case scenario, 5800 will be an important support level for DAX. Last day’s closing was not good and in this moment technical indicators are…

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week.

On longer term horizon S&P/ASX 200 may test 3600 level but for that it needs time. For short to medium term it makes a pattern which can take it around 3850–3900 level, here it has an important support around 4050, which looks like that it broke or is trying to break.
Technically it is in over-sold zone, but in spite of that it can drop little more. In early days of the coming week it is important to look movements around 4000 level because in last week it did not able to break that level. So it may try that again. But if it again faces support in this 4000–4050 level then there is a good chance that it may reverse its position, therefore important resistance level is at around 4200–4250 but for that it needs to cross 4100 level.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

KOSPI forecast for coming week.

At past 1770-1780 has acted as a good support for KOSPI and 1850 as a good resistance. Last day’s close was not good so I think that if it unable to cross 1840–1850 levels in early to middle days of this coming week then it may drop from here. Therefore the important level that needs to watch is 1750 in the downside.
KOSPI is not in much over-bought zone and it dropped rapidly in this month so a reversal is due. Where its retracement level is below 38.2% Fibonacci level, which is at 1864 level. So considering those it may test level around 1900 but crossing 1950 will be hard job for it. KOSPI has different position from many of its peers; I will give more emphasis on the movements in early days of the coming week and on 1850 level.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 18th May, 2012.

Hearing different discussions in the early days of this week many were thinking that it is a matter of days that they will get the news of Greece exit from Euro, yet it does not! Defeat in the local election by Angela Merkel’s party and remarks of Draghi also fueled those discussions. On the other hand Spanish PM intensified the fear contagion risk by predicting the risk of losing access of debt market for his nation.

During couple weeks everyone is talking about Spanish banks, at first it was due to their exposure in the real estate sector and now due to rise in 10-year Spanish bond yields above 6%. This is because these banks bought huge amount of government debts through ECB’s cheap loan and when Spanish bond yields goes above 6%, they are making losses in their investments. But I think this is temporary problem because many other banks from different nations are also suffering the same consequences or in future they will suffer.
Situation can be quite understandable when we saw that…

EURO forecast for coming week.

Last week I was expecting that EURO may test 1.28 level in later days of this week. EURO is falling during last 10-12 days so a reversal was due. It is very good to see that finally EURO has reacted on it short-term bearish pattern which I mentioned during last couple of months.
Now according to that pattern it can go up to 1.25 but before that I will not be surprise if it tests higher levels. Last day’s closing was good and it says that EURO may move flat or upside in the beginning of the coming week. But it doesn’t look like that EURO is going to test 1.32 range in coming week. Therefore in the upside it will get initial resistance at 1.29 and stronger one will be at around 1.30 level. There is more chance that EURO will be moving around smaller range in early to middle of the coming week. 1.26 has acted as a stronger support for EURO in past and now also it is getting support around that level. So if EURO does not able to break this level then it will not drop to test lower levels. T…

USD forecast for coming week.

Past week I was talking about 81.70 level for USD, as such it is getting resistance there. It is good to see that it has break out from the wedge which I talked in past.
Last few days it came down from its highs so I will not surprise if it comes down to test 80.5 level in early to middle of the coming week and if it breaks that then it may test level below 80. But frankly speaking, right now it does not look like that USD is going to drop more. USD is not in heavily over-bought zone so in the early days it may move in the upside. But if it drops in the early to middle of the coming week then it has a chance to test higher levels in later part. At past, 81.70 has acted as a good resistance and now also USD is facing hard times to cross this level. So in the upside I will put emphasis on that level.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 18th May, 2012.

Spanish PM’s remark about risk of losing access to debt funding for his nation, became bad for market. As Spanish borrowing cost jumped but situation were not same for Germany, as investors are still jumping for their Bonds even with such low yields. Look like everyone is giving priority to quality, as 10-year government Bond yields of many highest rated Euro zone nations also dropped to their lowest level. But in this period of time we cannot expect same things from different PIIGs nations which are again showing trend of rising Bond yields especially after lots of rating downgrades through out this week.

10-year German Bond yield dropped to their lowest figure but things were not same in earlier after German growth report. On the other hand French people must be happy with the falling borrowing cost in their auction after new president took office. Last week I was suspecting about 10-year Spanish Bond yield, as such this week it jumped to 5 month high. I am thinking about the losses …

Dow Jones forecast for coming week.

It is good to see that at last DOW has finally trigger the bearish pattern, I was expecting DOW to test little higher levels in early days of this week but it decided to act on that bearish pattern form the starting. On my 4th may, 2012 forecast I mentioned that if DOW drops below 12900, investors should cover their long positions and I think that was right call.
As I mentioned in past week that if bearish pattern triggers then it has the option to go up to 12100, here I must say that 12200 is acting as a good support for DOW. So it may give some flat movements in early days and then it has a chance to bounce back from that level. Here it may get initial resistance at 12600 and better one is at below 12800. Even if DOW starts upward movement from early days of the coming week then also those will be the resistance level. But if DOW chooses to drop below 12100 then next important support level is 11800. For coming week emphasis should be given on 12200 level. Last day I was talking about…

Dax forecast for coming week.

Last week I told that if DAX if unable to cross 6600 level then it will drop, it is good to see that DAX close just above the level of 6200 which I mentioned.
Technical indicators are showing that DAX is in over-sold zone but it has the option to go more in the downside. Therefore 6100 can act as a good support for DAX. In fact in past 6100 was a good support for it and if DAX breaks that then 6000 is next support level. In worse case scenario, 5800 will be an important support level for DAX. DAX is still following lower highs and lower lows pattern. Here I have a feeling that it may try to make a base at around 6200 level and early days of the coming week may give a signal of that. If it makes a base here then we may expect a reversal of trend from coming Tuesday to Wednesday. But I am not fully confident about that reversal, especially about the levels. It is an aggressive call, so for general investors the best way is to wait for couple of days so that if DAX drops. Therefore they ne…