I was expecting that in spite of being in over-bought zone USD will test higher levels. I am still maintaining the 80.50 resistance level for it. At this moment USD is showing different options, it looks to me that it has a chance to test 81.70 level. But it may not test that level in a straight way. There is a chance that USD may test 79.5–80 in some point of time in coming days, may be early to middle of the week.
But if it follows the up move in early days of the coming week then it may not re-test that lower levels. During last few weeks I was talking about a wedge for USD and now it looks to me that it is breaking up in the upside, I think it will be clear in coming days.
USD is getting into an over-bought zone and it has a chance to re-test 79.50, so in case if USD drops below 78.60 then it may test 78 and then triggers the bearish pattern. This negative pattern can take USD around 75 level. But I don’t think that we have to talk much about this for this moment, unless situation changes dramatically.
I want to repeat which I said during last few weeks that 78–82 becomes an important zone for it. I think person who has created long positions, for them 77–77.5 is the important level and for short positions the level is 81–81.50.
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