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Showing posts from July, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 27th July, 2012.

This week it is a brief review.

In earlier days of this week there was much fear in the market and as a reason Italy and Spain banned short-selling and later Moody’s outlook on Germany spoiled the party despite good Chinese PMI report.
INDEX 27th July, 2012 7/20/2012-7/27/2012 (%) 7/13/2012-7/20/2012 (%)



Dow 13075 1.97 0.35 Ftse 5627.21 -0.43 -0.25 Cac 3280.19 2.7 0.41 Dax 6689.4 0.89 1.11 Australia S&P 4209.8 0.25 2.86 Shanghai Com.

USD forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that if USD does not go up in earlier days then there is more chance of drops in later days. Now I do not want to go whether it has reacted on short-term bearish pattern this week but unless it goes above 84, I am not too much confident about the upward move of USD. In fact if it does not break 83.5 in earlier days then there is risk that it may test lower levels. If it breaks 82.5 level then there is a chance that it may test older levels of 81.50 and then 80.50 (which is its 61.80 retracement level considering 1st May low) are still intact.

Here I must say that if USD touches 81.50 then it may be making a bearish pattern, though this is a very early call. But somehow if that occurs then that future pattern can take USD to around below 80 level. I will later focus on this matter.
Long-term pattern demands USD to go around 89–90 level but since it is not a straight up move so a short-term reversal was due. I have a feeling that if USD may face strong resistance…

EURO forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that EURO may drop around 1.20 level and its turnaround was good. Now in coming days if it’s stays above this 1.23 (or maintains 1.22 support levels) then we may see more upward steps but obviously that completely depends on the moves in early days of the coming week. Its initial resistance will be around 1.24, if it crosses that then 1.27 will be the stronger resistance for it.

Last day’s close could have been better so on the contrary if EURO drops from here it may try to break 1.20 level and therefore it ultimate test will be 1.187. Long-term pattern demands EURO to go around 1.15 level. But if EURO somehow manages to maintain that 1.187 level then we may expect better days for it.
Few weeks ago I was talking about a medium term pattern which EURO is forming and if that triggers then EURO has a chance to test around 1.34 level.

[EURO is given against US dollar and it is US market price.]
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

I was expecting that DOW will bounce from 12600 level but still I am little disappoint with its performance in later period of this week. DOW is getting hard resistance in crossing the 13000 range, last day’s close was better from earlier and now there is a good chance that in coming week it may cross 13000 level convincingly to prove its short-term bullish pattern.
I told about a medium to long-term bullish pattern of DOW, for which important level is around13300 and if DOW crosses 13000 level and triggers its short-term bullish pattern then the chance of making that medium term bullish pattern will be stronger. During last few weeks I was talking about an alternative bearish pattern of DOW which can take it towards 12000. But now DOW has crossed an important level in the upside so if it stays there for sometime then technically the chance of triggering that bearish pattern is less.
DOW is moving side based with higher lows (or higher closings), if it continues that then earlier days o…

DAX forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

Last few days of this week was better for DAX but testing 6400 level has created a type of reservation for up moves. Last week I was talking that if DAX tests 6400 level then it may create a short-term bearish pattern and if that pattern triggers then DAX can test lower levels of 6100. I will later discuss about the situation if DAX tests 6100 level.

Last two days were better so there is a good chance that DAX may break 6800 level in earlier days of the coming week. During last few months I was talking about a bullish pattern of DAX though it has acted to some extent on it but the expectation was little more. So if DAX breaks 6800 level then there is a good chance that we may see better days.
In brief if DAX fails to cross 6800 level then there is a good chance that it may drop to trigger its bearish pattern and for that important support levels are at 6600 and around 6562 (50% retracement).

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

Though FTSE has not tested 5450 level but still it has created a short-term bearish pattern (approximate). I think if FTSE does not able to continue it’s up moves which we saw in later days of this week then there is a chance that it may trigger that bearish pattern. So early to middle days of the coming week are very important or I would rather say breaking roughly 5750 level in the upside.

On the other hand chance of reacting on its bullish is still there but since it is not a straighter one so it may take some time. Here I must mentioned that if FTSE breaks 6000 level then in technical term it will not act on its medium to long-term bearish pattern. After this week’s moves I cannot say that FTSE will follow the higher highs and higher lows trend so moves towards 5900 level may not be easy. So FTESE must stay above 5600 level in earlier days so that it can take more upward steps but for avoiding short-term bearish pattern it needs to break levels above 5700.

NOTE:  Please see the disc…

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

S&P/ASX 200 turned back from around its 61.8% retracement level, which I have mentioned in last week. Looks like S&P/ASX is moving in an upward channel so it may take time to test 4300 level. Its last day’s closing was good and if it continues that then we may see more upward moves but for that it needs to break its initial resistance level at just above 4200 level.

S&P/ASX needs to maintain 4150 level in earlier days but as it is making higher highs and higher lows so I will be worried about the downside when it breaks 4050 level. If it goes higher earlier days of the coming week then we may see little correction days in later periods of the coming week.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

As per expectation kospi dropped this week, little more corrections would be perfect. Later days were better but unless it beats 1850 level, I am not seeing much hope. In fact let it first cross the 1830 range convincingly. In the upside, for bullish pattern the important level is at around 1900.

During last few weeks KOSPI is making lower highs and lower lows so if it continues that then there is a chance that KOSPI may not go up much and it may start dropping to prove its bearish pattern completely. The pattern demands KOSPI to go around 1700 level but considering the average outcomes it may be less. Therefore it is important for KOSPI to stay above 1800 level in earlier to middle days of the coming week so that it can avoid more corrections.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 20th July, 2012.

Chinese factor overshadowed all other topics this week. Most of the Asian investors and traders were surprised by seeing negative Monday, in spite of good closing in US stock indexes in previous Friday.
Spanish 10-year bond yields were again in 7% range this week. I was thinking that situation may improve after Euro zone finance minister’s approval of 100bn euro in the last day for its banks but reaction of different stock indexes have not shown that effect yet, in turn Spanish IBEX 35 has corrected more than 6% this week.
INDEX 20th July, 2012 7/13/2012-7/20/2012 (%) 7/6/2012-7/13/2012 (%)



Dow 12822 0.35 0.04 Ftse 5651.77 -0.25 0.06 Cac 3193.89 0.41 0.38 Dax 6630.02 1.11 2.29 Australia S&P 4199.1 2.86 -1.82

EURO forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

EURO was trying to make a base but in the last day it looks like  EURO was negating that. So what it means that are we going to see more drops in coming days? I don’t know for sure but since it makes a new recent low so there will be pressure in the downside and some of the technical indicators are also saying that it has the option to drop more. I have a feeling that EURO may not drop much, may be around 1.20 but nothing is for sure. Later, if EURO tries to recover some ground then 1.22 will act as a resistance for it.

Here if we consider the long-term pattern then that demands EURO to go below 1.187 but if EURO somehow manages to maintain that then we may expect better days for it. In the medium term around 1.34 will be the target for EURO for any bullish move.

 [EURO is given against US dollar and it is US market price.]
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that USD may correct for few days and it got the initial support levels. Its move in the last day was quite encouraging but unless it goes above 84, I am not too much confident about the new up moves. In fact if it does not go up in early to middle days of the coming week then things may become different for USD.

There is not much change from last week so I am still holding most of those views. Long-term pattern demands USD to go around 89–90 level but since it is not a straight up move so a short-term reversal was due. But if it again got resistance around 83.5 then I am not too much confident about the support level which USD was getting this week so if it drops more from here then in the downside the older levels of 81.50 and then 80.50 (which is its 61.80 retracement level considering 1st May low) are still intact.
Here I must say that if USD touches 81.50 then it may be making a bearish pattern, though this is a very early call. But somehow if that occurs …

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

Still it is not clear to me whether DOW is going to trigger its short-term bullish pattern! Because though it remains above 12750 but it was unable to close above around 12990 (or better to say 12969 level), in fact in the last day it dropped from that level.
So that means DOW is still keeping options in both the sides. In early days of the coming week if DOW maintains that initial support levels then again it will create a hope of triggering its bullish pattern but for that it needs to cross 13000 level convincingly.

On the other hand if it drops below 12750 level then 12600 level will act as a good support for it. Though DOW has chances to react on its patterns but basically DOW is moving side based with higher lows (or higher closings). So if it follows that then it may try to bounce again from around 12600 level. But if it drops below that then there is a chance that it may react on its bearish pattern which can take it towards 12000 level. Here I must say it again that in my past p…

DAX forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

This week DAX has shown quite good days as its new bullish pattern says that DAX can go above 7000 level but considering its success rate 6850–6900 is the average. So I can say that DAX has acted on its new bullish pattern and any more moves in the upside will be bonus. DAX is making higher highs and higher lows and now I want to consider on breaking around 6900 level (may be not this week) and if DAX is able to break that then there are better days waiting for it.

On the other hand minor pull backs (like what we saw in the last day) are quite possible, considering its moves in last few weeks. But unless it breaks solid levels like 6600 and then 6500, I will not be worried about that. If I consider its recent reversal then around 6562 (50% retracement) it will get the strongest support. Last week I was talking that DAX will create the bearish pattern if it tests 6150 level. That bearish pattern is still there but now I am not expecting that DAX is going to test such lower levels but af…

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

FTSE 100 was more or less flat during last few weeks, it has formed a bullish pattern but it is not reacting on it. If that bullish pattern works out completely then it can go around 5900 levels. Last day was not good for FTSE, as it is getting strong resistance around 5700 level so it needs to stay above 5650-5680 level in early days of the coming week to react on that pattern. Here I must mentioned that if FTSE breaks 6000 level then in technical term it will not act on its medium to long-term bearish pattern.

At past I talked about 5600 level but considering its recent reversals, 5580 (50% retracement from 25th June low) can be a good support for it. But if FTSE breaks these and re-test around 5450 level then it has a chance of creating a bearish pattern, though it is in early stage. During last few weeks it is creating higher highs and higher lows and if it continues that trend then ultimately it has more chance to test higher levels.


NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

As I was predicting in last week, S&P/ASX 200 made a base around 4050–4100 level and this week it was just trying to prove its bullish pattern or I would say bullish patterns. If any of these patterns works out then it can test up to 4300 level. S&P/ASX is making higher highs and considering its last few higher lows, it is clearly indicating a change in environment. So in early days if it breaks 4200 level in the upside then there is a good chance of testing higher levels.

Though this week’s moves are giving positive hints but last day’s figure was not good, as things can change dramatically from this 4200 level. In the downside its initial support is at around 4150 level or better to say around 4120 (61.8% retracement), considering its recent reversal and I will not surprise if S&P/ASX tries to turn around from this level in middle to later part of the coming week. Now important matter for S&P/ASX is whether it continues higher highs and higher lows or it will follow t…

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 27th July, 2012.

KOSPI was unable to show any move, so I am still holding my last week’s view on it. 

Since it is struggling to break 1850 level so triggering bullish pattern is out of question for now. I will think about the bullish pattern when it will break around 1900 level. In coming week if it doesn't break 1850 level in early days then there is a chance that it can drop to test lower levels.
Few times ago KOSPI was looking to make reverse symmetrical triangle but last week I was suspecting about that and now after considering last few days moves I think it has a chance of making a descending triangle and its break out looks close. KOSPI is compelling me to guess about different options in both sides and sometime that becomes very confusing. Last week I was talking about a bearish pattern which could take it towards 1700 but yet there is no certainty about that because it needs more drops (around 1780 levels) in the downside to prove that pattern.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.