Skip to main content

USD forecast for coming week ended 3rd August, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that if USD does not go up in earlier days then there is more chance of drops in later days. Now I do not want to go whether it has reacted on short-term bearish pattern this week but unless it goes above 84, I am not too much confident about the upward move of USD. In fact if it does not break 83.5 in earlier days then there is risk that it may test lower levels. If it breaks 82.5 level then there is a chance that it may test older levels of 81.50 and then 80.50 (which is its 61.80 retracement level considering 1st May low) are still intact.

Here I must say that if USD touches 81.50 then it may be making a bearish pattern, though this is a very early call. But somehow if that occurs then that future pattern can take USD to around below 80 level. I will later focus on this matter.

Long-term pattern demands USD to go around 89–90 level but since it is not a straight up move so a short-term reversal was due. I have a feeling that if USD may face strong resistance at 82.5 level and it may bounce again from this level.
        

NOTEPlease see the disclaimer of this blog.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

Economical problems are always better option for market than Political problems.

Traders around the world were in better condition in past when market was ruled by European debt crisis (PIIGs) than now when market is facing a situation in gulf region & related refuge problem. Not only European debt crisis is more connected with economics but its effects have created more panic in the market. As a trader in the equity market always I am looking for more volatility in the market & that is better when matter is more connected with economics, obviously this question will not come if it is a world war or something like that.
In coming days market is expecting high volatility in response of Brexit & Fed’s rate hike but as matters are progressing I feel that it may not create that much what media are highlighting. Especially when Britain’s exit may not be sure as we are seeing in different news, I think it may be going to effect their currency too. On the other hand today or tomorrow Fed is going to hike the rate so question may come about their timing.
A new …