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Showing posts from August, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 24th August, 2012.

Currency market showed different nature this week, I am talking about general relation with the stock market. Last week I was expecting that Euro’s moves may give some good signal for market, though Euro/Usd did it to certain extent but stock market was not too supportive with Euro.

INDEX 24th August, 2012 8/17/2012-8/24/2012 (%) 8/10/2012-8/17/2012 (%)



Dow 13158 -0.88 0.51 Ftse 5776.6 -1.29 0.09 Cac 3433.21 -1.58 1.54 Dax 6971.07 -0.99 1.39 Australia S&P 4349 -0.48 2.17 Shanghai Com. 2092.1

EURO forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

Last week I was strongly expecting EURO to break 1.24 level, now in the last day it dropped from the higher levels. I don’t think that Euro is going to test more than 1.24 in the downside and I am expecting more upside movements. Euro is making a short-term pattern though it has already reacted on that but if it fully reacts then it may go around 1.27 level.

Few weeks ago I was talking about a medium term pattern which EURO is forming and if that triggers then EURO has a chance to test around 1.34 level but that is not a short-term play so it will take time for that. For any up move of that type, EURO needs to break 1.27 convincingly.

[EURO is given against US dollar and it is US market price.]
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

During last few weeks I was talking that if USD breaks 81.5 then there is a chance that it may be making a bearish pattern, though this is an early call but this lower highs and lower lows trend may be indicating that. But somehow if that occurs then that future pattern can take USD to around below 80 level.

The bearish pattern demands USD to go higher levels from here and in the last day it tried that but unless USD breaks 82.5 level I am not seeing much room in the upside. So even in early days of the coming week USD moves higher I think it has more chance to drop in later days.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

Last week I was not sure that DOW is going to break 13300 level in fact the medium to long-term positive pattern which I was mentioning during last few months demands Dow to drop from this 13300 level. I was talking that Dow’s drops may remain limited and I am still holding that view. I do feel that levels around 12900 may act as a good support for DOW in the downside. If we follow the recent trend then Dow may drop around 12800 (more than 50% reversal). The chance of further drop will be still there but I will be talking about the bearish pattern when DOW tests level around 12500.

According to its bullish pattern Dow is expected to go upside and its last day was better but that not means that Dow is going to break 13300 in coming week in a straight way. I think that Dow may show couple of good days but before proving that bullish pattern we may see little more correction.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

DAX forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

I was expecting that DAX may not test 7200 level. Now Dax may try to show couple of good days but it is hard to say whether it is going to break 7200 level in coming week.

On the other hand if it drops in middle to later days then it has an initial support at around 6900 level but it can drop up to around 6600 level (around 61.8% reversal). It has more chance of reverse from around 6800 level but specifying any level is not possible for now.
Dax has formed a medium term bullish pattern and it is also vulnerable to bear trap if it drops below around 6000 level but guessing about 6000 is too much for now.
Last week I was talking about the movements around 6400-6900; unless DAX is coming out from this zone risk of dropping around 6000 level will be there. DAX is making higher highs and higher lows, considering that if DAX breaks 6600 then I don’t think that it is going to drop below 6400 level.


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Stock Market forecast for coming week.

Still now market is rallying on stimulus expectation, in fact they are not even responding that much even on bad news which they used to do in past. So in turn that is a bullishness which is prevailing in the market around the world and bond yields of problematic nations are also supportive. Here the important matter is how long market can hold on these levels in anticipation of future stimulus! There will be some point when markets will be tired to go on this assumptions and hints.

Greece issue is again coming into the headlines. On the other hand currency market is not giving any definite signal this week and if it continues this nature then that may become problematic matter. Most of the stock indexes are expected to perform couple of good early days but it is hard to predict about the later days of the coming week.

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

I was expecting that FTSE may test higher levels considering the flat movements and technical indicators but it followed the overall trend. In coming days if it drops from this level then 5700 will be its initial support and next one is at around 5600 level. If it drops more then I will think about a bearish pattern if FTSE breaks 5500 level but that may not be necessary in coming week.

Last two days were not showing any specific trend for FTSE and technical indicators are showing more oversold position so I am still expecting reversal in the upside and we may get a signal of that in early days. But I am not sure that whether it is going to break 5900 level in coming week.
FTSE is making a long-term bearish pattern which it can trigger below 5000 level but this type of pattern is difficult to trigger. On the other hand higher lows which it made in last 1 year, says that FTSE will be testing upside in coming future.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

Last week I was mentioning that S&P/ASX 200 may find hard resistance at 4400-4450 level.
Still I am keeping hope about the medium term bullish pattern which S&P/ASX has created though it is not very clear but if it triggers that then it will cross 4400-4450 level. Even if it drops in early days I am expecting a trend change in later days.
Now it may correct in coming week and if it drops more from 4350 level then 4300 will be its initial support and then around 4250 level.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 31st August, 2012.

KOSPI has failed to cross 1950 and now for coming week 1900 is its initial support level and the better one is at 1850. Since it did not fall much so kospi may again try to reverse from around 1900 level to re-test 1950 level, as technically now it is in better position.
If it cannot cross 1950 level then there is a chance of correction. Things can be frustrating if it moves around 1850 to 1950 level, I am saying this because if it is building a reverse symmetrical triangle (which I mentioned in past) then there is a chance of more corrections so in the downside around 1850 level is very important for kospi.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 17th August, 2012.

Market is still not dropping in with the hope of stimulus, this week a further stimulus expectation added in the list and that is from Japan. If this type of thing goes on then I can draw one conclusion that most of the nations are trying to come-out from this problem by using stimulus steroid with their own brand.

INDEX 17th August, 2012 8/10/2012-8/17/2012 (%) 8/03/2012-8/10/2012 (%)



Dow

0.85 Ftse 5852.42 0.09 1.03 Cac 3488.38 1.54 1.82 Dax 7040.88 1.39 1.15 Australia S&P 4370.1 2.17 1.32 Shanghai Com. 2114.89