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Stock market review (weekly) after 28th September, 2012.

Euro zone leaders are not showing what market is expected from them though Spanish budget and stress tests of their banks were better. This week most of the stock indexes were in red which is indicating indecision about further up moves or any directional moves.

INDEX 28th September, 2012 9/21/2012-9/28/2012 (%) 9/14/2012-9/21/2012 (%)



Dow 13437 -1.04 -0.1 Ftse 5742.07 -1.89 -1.06 Cac 3354.82 -4.98 -1.42 Dax 7216.15 -3.16 0.53 Australia S&P 4387 -0.48 0.42 Shanghai Com. 2086.17

EURO forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

Last week I was expecting a bounce in Euro but it did not happen or I would say we may have to wait little more for that. In the last two days it was trying to test 1.30 but closed in lower position. Now 1.34 is far for Euro and levels around 1.30 are its first target and thereafter 1.32 levels.

If it fails to break this 1.32 range then Euro may create a bearish pattern which may take it to re-test 1.27-1.28 range but this prediction is based on the fact that Euro may again test 1.30 or higher level in coming days. There is another chance that Euro may not test higher positions and may drop from this level. Therefore it will face support at around 1.25 levels.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

Last week I was suspecting that Usd may not drop from this level. Though it faced couple of odd days but I think that it may go more in the upside, provided it does not drop in early days of the coming week. As such 79.5 is acting as a strong support base for Usd. In fact it looks to me that Usd is creating a very short-term pattern for more up moves. This pattern is not clear yet, as such it needs couple of more days but if it triggered fully then Usd may test around 81 levels.
On the other hand if Usd again drops from this 79.5 level then it may again re-test around 78.5 ranges. But breaking 78.5 will be hard for it. From there it may give stronger reversal and that is mostly expected in later periods of the coming week. If Usd bounces from there then we may see that Usd is testing near around 81 levels but that may not be in coming week.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that Dow may show slight correction and it is good to see that it maintained 13400 level. Now I will be worried if Dow does not cross 13500 level because in that case bears will be in power.

Dow has already triggered its bullish pattern and as I said in past that it may take time to react on this pattern because it is not a straight one. This type of small correction is quite possible so in coming days situation may change and it may cross 13600 levels. 13800 is its next resistance, Dow can go up to 14200 if it fully reacts on this medium term bullish pattern.
On the other side if it again fails to cross 13600 level then it may make a very short-term bearish pattern which may take it towards around 13200 level. It has initial support level at 13300 and I will think about another bearish pattern if it drops around 13000 level.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

DAX forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

I still think that these small moves are not creating good atmosphere for Dax in this higher levels, as past instances were not good. In spite of that Dax may test higher levels and technically I am saying this because of the higher lows it made in past weeks. If Dax is able to cross 7400 in coming week then 7500 will be its initial target in the upside and the better one is at 7600 for any bigger move.

In later days of this week it dropped and that will be a matter of concern if Dax drops below 7000 range. 7200 is its initial support. Like many other leading stock indexes, Dax has a chance of making very short-term bearish pattern if it does not able to cross 7400 in coming days and if that pattern fully reacts then Dax may test around 7000 levels. On the other hand if we go with recent reversals then it can drop up to around 6600 level (around 61.8% reversal) though this may not be necessary a prediction for coming week.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

I was expecting that Ftse may show directional move in middle days but still it has a chance of upside movements. Ftse may move in the both sides but frankly speaking it looks to me slightly bearish than other leading indexes and this is in spite of the fact that it is in more over-sold condition than others.


So in coming week, first it has to cross 5850 level and thereafter 5900. I will think about a new uptrend or break-out in the upside when it will give stronger moves above 6000 level.
On the other side if it drops from here  or failed to test above 5900 level then there is a chance of correction in later period of the coming week. I will think about a bearish pattern if it drops below 5700 level. Here I must say that when other leading stock indexes are showing an opportunity of making future bearish pattern, in case of Ftse that chance is more prominent.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

Kospi is not leaving 2000 zone easily, as such it was flat this week. I am still hoping that Kospi has a chance to cross 2000 level but even if go past this 2000 level in coming week, it will get better resistance at 2050 level in the upside. I will think about a new bull movement for Kospi when it will give stronger moves above 2050 range.

On the other side if it drops from this level then there is a chance that Kospi may make a bearish pattern if it goes below 1900 but still it needs more time to specify details about that. Kospi has initial support level at around 1950 level.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 5th October, 2012.

S&P/ASX is still moving around 4400 range but the higher low it made this week around 4350 was encouraging. So in coming week it has stronger chance to cross 4400 level and that is expected to be in middle days. For any new investments, it is better to wait for confirmation about the up moves.


During past 12-14 months S&P/ASX is making lower lows which also support the up moves. In the upside 4500 is the initial resistance and the bigger one is at 4600 level. In the medium term basis it has created a bullish pattern though it is not 100% accurate but if that pattern is true then S&P/ASX may go up to 4800 in coming future.
Now if S&P/ASX cannot break 4400 level then there is a good chance that it may create a very short-term bearish pattern which may take S&P/ASX below 4300 level, here it has initial support at around 4350 ranges. S&P/ASX has a chance of making another bearish pattern if it tests below 4300 level in the downside but it may not be a straight one.


NO…

Stock market review (weekly) after 21st September, 2012.

All those stimulus steroids from both sides of Atlantic failed to cheer the sentiment even for a week. Most of the stock indexes were flat this week in spite of that Japanese stimulus. Chinese & Japanese dispute over an island create some minor problem in the early days of this week though it disappeared with asset purchase program of BoJ. But later Chinese PMI and Japanese export figure could not deliver anything to cheer.

INDEX 21st September, 2012 9/14/2012-9/21/2012 (%) 9/7/2012-9/14/2012 (%)



Dow 13579 -0.1 2.16 Ftse 5852.62 -1.06 2.08 Cac 3530.72 -1.42 1.78 Dax 7451.62 0.53 2.74 Australia S&P 4408.3 0.42 1.48 Shanghai Com.