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Showing posts from October, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 26th October, 2012.

In early days of this week earnings were moving the market but in spite of better US gdp figure market was disturbed by German finance minister’s comments about Greece. Many investors are again taking shelter in safe heavens as we can get a sense of that from lower US treasury yields.

INDEX 26th October, 2012 10/19/2012-10/26/2012 (%) 10/12/2012-10/19/2012 (%)



Dow 13107 -1.77 0.11 Ftse 5806.71 -1.52 1.77 Cac 3435.09 -1.98 3.41 Dax 7231.85 -2.02 2.05 Australia S&P 4472.4 -2.16 1.88

EURO forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

Euro again gets resistance at 1.31 levels and still there is not much change in the scenarios. Still it has both the options open; in the downside it has 1.28 is the support levels and in the 1.31 is the resistance levels. So the range for Euro is 1.28 to 1.31 levels, unless it is getting out of this range it is very hard to predict for sure.

Now if I have to take a decisive call on Euro then I will say if it able to cross 1.30 level in the early to middle days of the coming week then it has more chance to go upside, otherwise it may react bearish pattern. If it reacts fully on that bearish pattern then Euro may test up to around 1.25 ranges. On the other hand unless it breaks 1.31 levels in the upside it will be hard for it to test upside target levels of around 1.34 levels.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

Usd is again testing level above 79.5 and the chance of breaking 80 is more than its previous occasion. In coming week I will not be surprise if USD again tests around 79.6 level and from there it may make higher moves. Usd may test up to around 81 level in the upside.

On the other hand if it again tests lows around 79 levels then there is a chance that it may be making a negative pattern, I think we may get a signal of that in later days of the coming week if that pattern works out then Usd may test around 78.5 level. I still think that USD may take more time to break 78.5 levels.

NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

Dow has reacted on its short-term bearish pattern and as I was telling in my past reviews that if Dow tests around 13000 levels then it will give strength to its medium-term bearish pattern. 
Now if that medium term bearish pattern is true then Dow may show little more up moves and the base which it is making during later days of this week may also be suggesting that but that is definitely not above 13600 levels, may be around 13300–13400 levels. The pattern which I am talking about is not totally clear but if it fully reacts then Dow may test up to 12400 levels.
If this base or around 13000 support levels don’t work out then Dow may drop from 13000 levels in around middle days of the coming week, in fact in that case Dow may give flat movements in around 13000 to 13200 levels in early days. All these are probable predictions and things may become different if Dow starts dropping from 13000 levels in early days of the coming week.
On the other hand if this base around 13000 works out and…

DAX forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

During last few months Dax has take the support of 7200 and now it is trying to break that but except that Dax is not showing anything for sure. 

It looks that Dax may be making a very short-term bearish pattern but this type of pattern has limited success rate. We may get an early indication of that pattern if Dax breaks around 7150 levels and if that bearish pattern fully reacts then Dax may try up to 7000 levels. In this moment one thing look bad for Dax if it breaks around 7000 levels.
As I was saying that Dax is not showing anything for sure so there is a positive side too for it. So long it maintains around 7150 (or 7000 levels) there is a chance that it may make a positive pattern but that needs more time.
Long-term position of Dax is not totally clear, it has both the options open so taking a decisive call is difficult. If we go with long-term reversals then it may drop up to around 6730 level (around 50.0% reversal).

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

During last few weeks I was emphasizing on 5800 level for Ftse and after this week’s moves it looks to me that Ftse may break that in the downside. 

At past I have mentioned about multiple bearish options and now it has a chance to test around 5700 level and if it becomes true in coming week then Ftse has a chance of triggering the medium term bearish pattern if it breaks around 5650 level. In coming week if it unable to break 5900 or I would say 5850 in the early to middle days of the coming week then it has more chance to drop from 5800 levels. In the longer term perspective it is very necessary for Ftse to break around 6150 level to avoid the long-term bearish pattern.
After a big drop in early days of this week, later days were better and considering its higher lows I still think that Ftse has a chance to break 5900 levels. In my previous reviews I talked that Ftse is maintaining a trend line during last few months but during couple of days it is showing a tendency to move away from…

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

Though S&P/ASX has acted to some extent on its bullish pattern but it did not able to show much movement around 4600 level. Now it is again testing 4500, what I feel that if it does not able to break around 4525 in coming week then there is a chance that it may drop in later periods of the week.

Considering its short-term over-sold position I think it may again try to test 4600 level but if it does not able to break that then there is also a chance that S&P/ASX may create a short-term bearish pattern, though this is a very early call because that pattern is just in its early days.
S&P/ASX has the chance of avoiding future drops only by breaking around 4600 levels. So if it able to break 4525 in early to middle days then that may act as a good sign for it.
On the other hand if S&P/ASX drops down from 4450 level then it will get support at 4400 level. The chance of making medium term bearish pattern is still there if S&P/ASX tests below 4300 level in the downside but i…

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 2nd November, 2012.

Kospi is threatening to make a medium term bearish pattern, now if it goes below around 1880 then that fear will be more. 
But even if it tests 1880, it may take more time to react on that bearish pattern. Last week I did not able to give my predictions but in the last week Kospi’s movements of making lower highs and lower lows are indicating that it may drop more. In fact it is trying to break an upward trend line which it was following during last few months.
Though it has a chance to come out from this bearish atmosphere but that will be only when it will break 1950 level convincingly. In fact I will think about a new short-term bullish pattern if Kospi is able to break around 1960 level but this is in early stage. If we consider that kospi is in medium term bullish phase then that lower highs and lower lows may be indicating future upward movements.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.