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Showing posts from November, 2012

Stock market review (weekly) after 30th November, 2012.

As I was expecting in last week, most stock indexes saw little bounce in the upside this week. Whatever up movements we are seeing now that is mostly happening on expectation of good things from US cliff. In the last day Japanese stimulus news helped Asian markets but Shanghai Composite is still not showing any better picture.

INDEX 30th November, 2012 11/23/2012-11/30/2012 (%) 11/16/2012-11/23/2012 (%)



Dow 13025.58 0.12 3.35 Ftse 5866.82 0.82 3.81 Cac 3557.28 0.81 5.6 Dax 7405.5 1.32 5.16 Australia S&P 4506 2.11 1.76 Shanghai Com. 198

EURO forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

I am still maintaining my earlier view about Euro, if it able to break 1.31 then it has a chance of making bullish pattern. Since Euro is close to that level so the chance is more now. But for coming week I will not be surprise if it faces couple of negative days. In fact if that bullish pattern is true then Euro will drop from here but that may not be more than around 1.27 ranges.

So if Euro drops in earlier days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may bounce in later days. Therefore we may expect Euro to test above 1.34 if Euro acts completely on that bullish pattern. On the other hand if Euro breaks 1.27 ranges then it may create a bearish pattern and in that case we may see Euro below 1.25 levels in future.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

USD forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

In my last review I was suspecting that if Usd tests around 80 levels then there is a chance that it may be going for a negative pattern and that will be prominent if it breaks 79 levels. Though Usd is trying to get a support at around 80 ranges but I think if things do not change in early to middle days then it will be going for 79 levels.

On the other hand if it able to cross around 80.5 ranges in early days of the coming week then it will again try 81 ranges. In that case Usd has a chance of making positive pattern but for that it has to break 81.5 ranges. If Usd triggers that bullish pattern then it may go up to around 84 levels but that will be for future.
NOTE:  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Dow Jones forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

Last week I was suspecting that it will be a hard job for Dow to cross 13320 levels and it gets the initial resistance at around 13000 ranges.

As I said in past that Dow has the multiple options in the downside but unless it is crossing 12400 I am not sure about them. Where as its bounce in the middle of this week from around 12800 level was good. In fact there is a chance that it may cross 13000 levels in coming week but for that it has to maintain around 12800 levels in early to middle days of the coming week. The bullish pattern which I have mentioned in past weeks is still on for Dow but unless it is testing around 13320 levels, I am not sure about it.
If Dow breaks 12800 levels then it may try to test its previous low which is below 12600. But so long it maintains that previous low level; there is a good chance that it may bounce back in later periods of the coming week. In fact in that case Dow will make a short-term positive pattern but that needs time.
NOTE: Please see the discla…

DAX forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

Dax is trying to break crucial levels of 7400 which it failed to break during last few months. I think this week Dax has proved important thing that it is not going to follow the lower highs and lower lows trend which many other leading stock indexes are following. Now Dax is in a position where it may create a bullish pattern but that pattern demands Dax to fall from these levels. The way it moves during last few days I think even if it drops, it will be just around 7200 ranges.

Here it is important to take new position after Dax signals full confirmation of breaking 7400 levels. Dax is in short-term over-bought level so even if it breaks 7200 then better support is at around 7000 ranges. I will think differently when Dax will go below 7000 levels.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

FTSE 100 forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

Still I cannot say for sure that Ftse is not following lower highs and lower lows trend. During last couple of months Ftse is getting resistance in 5900 levels but the low it made this month was not a good one because it breaks the higher lows trend so I am still not sure whether it is going to complete the bullish pattern which I have discussed in past weeks though still there is time for that. In fact in coming week, it may drop little to complete that pattern.

The way it is moving now I will not surprise if it again try to tests 5800 levels in early days of the coming week. Things may become bad if it breaks 5800 range because in that case we may see Ftse in lower levels. But so long it maintains 5600 level in the downside another reversal in the upside may not be ruled out.

NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

KOSPI forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

Last week I was expecting that if Kospi maintains 1900 levels in early days then there is a chance that it may test higher levels but I was not sure about 1940 level. I am still maintaining my last week’s stand, so long it does not cross around 2000 levels in the upside it has the chance to trigger its medium-term bearish pattern and if it able to cross around 1940 then it may create a bullish pattern.

In coming week I will not surprise if Kospi faces small correction in early days to test around 1900 levels again. In fact the medium-term bullish pattern which I talked about, demands Kospi to drops but that should not be below 1860. If complete this bullish pattern and triggers it in later part of the coming week then it has a chance to test above 2000 levels.
On the other hand if Kospi fails to maintain 1900 level then it may trigger the bearish pattern. During last few months Kospi is following lower highs and lower lows trend, unless it is coming out of that trend, the chance of trig…

S&P/ASX 200 forecast for coming week ended 7th December, 2012.

It was expected that S&P/ASX will test higher levels if it maintains 4400 levels in early days. Last week I was talking about lower highs though this week S&P/ASX has tried 4450 levels but unless it goes past around 4580 levels, time has not come to say for sure that it is out of that trend.

Last few days were better for S&P/ASX and it has a chance to cross around 4530 level but if it fails to cross around 4580 then there is chance that S&P/ASX may create a medium-term bearish pattern, though it is in early stage. I said that it may cross 4530 level but in early days of the coming week I will not surprise if S&P/ASX tests around 4450 levels again. I will be worried about that medium term bearish pattern when S&P/ASX breaks around 4350 levels convincingly. It is better to wait for full confirmation because there is a chance that it may take the support of 4350 and again test higher levels. In that case it will make a short-term bullish pattern which may take S&am…

Stock market review (weekly) after 23rd November, 2012.

France lost its top credit rating from Moody’s but it is good to see that market did not reacted much on it. In early days of this week stock indexes rebounded from losing streak on optimism that US may get a solution on tax and spending problem that they may face in the year end. In fact most of the stock indexes were in short-term over-sold zone so this type of reversal is quite expected.

INDEX 23rd November, 2012 11/16/2012-11/23/2012 (%) 11/09/2012-11/16/2012 (%)



Dow 13009.68 3.35 -1.78 Ftse 5819.14 3.81 -2.84 Cac 3528.8 5.6 -2.39 Dax 7309.13 5.16 -2.97 Australia S&P 4413 1.76 -2.81 Shanghai Com.