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Stock market review (weekly) after 30th November, 2012.

As I was expecting in last week, most stock indexes saw little bounce in the upside this week. Whatever up movements we are seeing now that is mostly happening on expectation of good things from US cliff. In the last day Japanese stimulus news helped Asian markets but Shanghai Composite is still not showing any better picture.

30th November, 2012
11/23/2012-11/30/2012 (%)
11/16/2012-11/23/2012 (%)

Australia S&P
Shanghai Com.
Hang Seng
Russia :Titans
Argentina: Merval
South Africa

This week was good for Greece, first European finance ministers eased the terms on emergency aid and later German lawmakers approved a Greek aid but their DJ GR was bad this week. On the other side German unemployment rate was not good though German Dax is definitely showing better things than most other leading indexes.

Stock Market forecast for the coming week.

This week it is a brief forecast, Let talk about different stock indexes.

Last week I was suspecting that it will be a hard job for Dow Jones I.A. to cross 13320 levels and it gets the initial resistance at around 13000 ranges.
As I said in past that Dow has the multiple options in the downside but unless it is crossing 12400 I am not sure about them. Where as its bounce in the middle of this week from around 12800 level was good. In fact there is a chance that it may cross 13000 levels in coming week but for that it has to maintain around 12800 levels in early to middle days of the coming week. The bullish pattern which I have mentioned in past weeks is still on for Dow but unless it is testing around 13320 levels, I am not sure about it.
If Dow breaks 12800 levels then it may try to test its previous low which is below 12600. But so long it maintains that previous low level; there is a good chance that it may bounce back in later periods of the coming week. In fact in that case Dow will make a short-term positive pattern but that needs time.

German DAX is trying to break crucial levels of 7400 which it failed to break during last few months. I think this week Dax has proved important thing that it is not going to follow the lower highs and lower lows trend which many other leading stock indexes are following. Now Dax is in a position where it may create a bullish pattern but that pattern demands Dax to fall from these levels. The way it moves during last few days I think even if it drops, it will be just around 7200 ranges.
 Here it is important to take new position after Dax signals full confirmation of breaking 7400 levels. Dax is in short-term over-bought level so even if it breaks 7200 then better support is at around 7000 ranges. I will think differently when Dax will go below 7000 levels.

Still I cannot say for sure that FTSE 100 is not following lower highs and lower lows trend. During last couple of months Ftse is getting resistance in 5900 levels but the low it made this month was not a good one because it breaks the higher highs trend so I am still not sure whether it is going to complete the bullish pattern which I have discussed in past weeks though still there is time for that. In fact in coming week, it may drop little to complete that pattern.
The way it is moving now I will not surprise if it again try to tests 5800 levels in early days of the coming week. Things may become bad if it breaks 5800 range because in that case we may see Ftse in lower levels. But so long it maintains 5600 level in the downside another reversal in the upside may not be ruled out.

Last week I was expecting that if South Korean KOSPI maintains 1900 levels in early days then there is a chance that it may test higher levels but I was not sure about 1940 level. I am still maintaining my last week’s stand, so long it does not cross around 1940 levels in the upside it has the chance to trigger its medium-term bearish pattern and if it able to cross around 1940 then it may create a bullish pattern.
In coming week I will not surprise if Kospi faces small correction in early days to test around 1900 levels again. In fact the medium-term bullish pattern which I talked about, demands Kospi to drops but that should not be below 1860. If complete this bullish pattern and triggers it in later part of the coming week then it has a chance to test above 2000 levels.
On the other hand if Kospi fails to maintain 1900 level then it may trigger the bearish pattern. During last few months Kospi is following lower highs and lower lows trend, unless it is coming out of that trend, the chance of triggering the bearish pattern is more. The way it moves during last few days, Kospi may break that trend in coming week by breaking 1940 levels in the upside.

It was expected that S&P/ASX 200 will test higher levels if it maintains 4400 levels in early days. Last week I was talking about lower highs though this week S&P/ASX has tried 4450 levels but unless it goes past around 4580 levels, time has not come to say for sure that it is out of that trend.
Last few days were better for S&P/ASX and it has a chance to cross around 4530 level but if it fails to cross around 4580 then there is chance that S&P/ASX may create a medium-term bearish pattern, though it is in early stage. I said that it may cross 4530 level but in early days of the coming week I will not surprise if S&P/ASX tests around 4450 levels again. I will be worried about that medium term bearish pattern when S&P/ASX breaks around 4350 levels convincingly. It is better to wait for full confirmation because there is a chance that it may take the support of 4350 and again test higher levels. In that case it will make a short-term bearish pattern which may take S&P/ASX above 4600 levels.
So for coming week I will be expecting better middle to later days if S&P/ASX maintains 4450 level in early days. On the other hand if it follows the same trend like this week then I will be waiting for breaking around 4580 levels in the upside, therefore it may drop in later days.

Reports due in coming days (from US) 

Monday, 3rd December, 2012 – ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending.

Tuesday, 4th December, 2012 – Auto Sales Thr. day

Wednesday, 5th December, 2012 – ADP Jobs Report, Productivity, Factory Orders, ISM non-mfg Index.

Thursday, 6th December, 2012 – Unemployment claims

Friday, 7th December, 2012 – Labor Dept Jobs Report, Consumer Sentiment.


Tuesday, 4th December, 2012 – Chinese PMI

Thursday, 6th December, 2012 – German Factory Orders

NOTE Please see the disclaimer of this blog.


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