World Equity Market

Asian Stock Indexes this week ended 24th February, 2012.

2012-02-24T04:47:00.003-08:00

INDEX	24th Feb, 2012	2/17/2011-2/24/2012 (%)	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)

AUSTRALIA	4306.8	-2.64	-1.16
CHINA - Shanghai Com.	2439.63	-3.49	0.22
HONG KONG - Hang Sg.	21406.86	0.39	3.41
INDIA - Sensex	17923.57	1.99	3.05
INDONESIA - Jsx	3894.56	2.06	1.64
JAPAN - Nikkei	9647.38	-2.8	4.88
KOREA - Kospi	2019.89	0.18	1.49
MALAYSIA - KLCI COM.	1558.77	-0.1	-0.29
NEW ZEALAND - Nz 50	3319.76	-0.94	-1.77
SINGAPORE - Straits	2978.08	0.75	1.37
TAIWAN	7959.34	-0.82	0.41
THAILAND	1146.14	-1.43	1.53

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Future of FTSE.

2012-02-21T04:53:00.001-08:00

Firstbe sure that FTSE is in overbought condition, but in the downside I will think muchwhen FTSE crosses 5400. In my previous review I told that 6000 level is verycrucial for FTSE. Now in coming days if it breaks that then it can test levelabove 6300. Here it is important to say that 6100 is the real obstacle for FTSEwhich it failed to cross during last 3 years. Greece deal (though as I told in myweekly reviews that it is already discounted) may create a good environment. Sowe can hope for the best, provided my yearly forecast (World Equity Market: Stock market reviewfor year 2011 and stock ...) becomes true.

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 17th February, 2012.

2012-02-17T22:34:00.000-08:00

Moody’s downgradedid not able to create panic because that was overcome by Chinese support newsand hopes that are building surrounding Greece. Japanese stimulus andbetter USdata also supported the markets.

INDEX	17th Feb, 2012	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)

Dow	12949	1.16	-0.47
Ftse	5905.07	0.9	-0.82
Cac	3439.62	1.97	-1.59
Dax	6848.03	2.32	-1.09
Australia S&P	4195.9	-1.16	-0.14
Shanghai Com.	2357.18	0.22	0.93
Hang Seng	21491.62	3.41	0.13
Sensex	18289.35	3.05	0.82
Russia :Titans	6492.92	2.84	-3.96
Bovespa	66203.5	3.45	-1.87
Argentina: Merval	2798.83	2.83	-3.16
South Africa	34082.78	0.56	-1.44

Some of the Emergingnations are seeing 6^th consecutive positive weeks, where as Australia isfacing 3 consecutive negative weeks. I was reading somewhere about loans (localgovernments) those are due for repayment in China, as some experts are suggestingthat they are not in a good condition to repay those. Their January home pricesrecorded worst performance in a year.

Stock marketforecast for coming week.

Emerging marketshave seen much inflows of money in this year so that is a good sign for overallworld financial market. Now sentiment is improving as investors are taking morerisk. In coming days markets will react according to the outcome from Greece. Many stockindexes are showing that they can go more in coming days, but there are lots ofinvestors who are just praying for a correction to enter into the market.

DOW was flat in the early days but later inthe week due to good reports and hopes from Greek, it was trying to test 13000level which I said in last week. Last day’s volume says that it can go more inthe upside but for that it has to break this 13000 level convincingly. Sometechnical indicators support that up move. But somehow if it reverse its coursethen it will get support at 12600 and then at 12300.

Like DOW, DAX isalso trying to test higher levels. As technical indicators are saying, I thinkDAX may test 7000 level if good news comes from Greece. In last day it has createda gap, so I will be watching it in coming days. If it reverse then it will getinitial support around 6450 and then at 6100.

I was expectingthat BOVESPA may test 63000 level but it bounce back from 64000 level. Ithink in spite of short-term overbought condition it may follow the globaltrend and may test 68000 levels in the upside. In the downside if it breaks63000 then it can go below 60000.

I was expecting ShanghaiComposite to test 2400 level but it did less, right now it is gettingresistance at 2370 but it can break that on positive news. On the other hand lasttwo days closing figures were not good, it has a support at 2300.

During last fewweeks I told many times that any good news can take Strait TIMES intohigher levels. It may not hear sound but I still think that it can go more inthe upside may be above 3100, as its bullish pattern says. But if it reverseits course then it may get support at 2900 and then below 2800.

Reports due incoming days (from US)

Wednesday, 22^ndFebruary, 2012 – Existing Home Sales

Thursday, 23^rdFebruary, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, FHFA Home Price Index.

Friday, 17thFebruary, 2012 – Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales.

So couple of years euro-zone fear is leavingus! I think only rating agencies (Who isgoing to downgrade these Rating Agencies for life- *blog**spot), some experts and Medias have that answer. What I think that Greek mayget temporary solution of their debt which will be due in coming month. Butwhat after that! What about Portugal,Spain and Italy! One thing is sure if Greece gets thebail-out money then we may see its reaction on the stock markets around theworld, some of which are already in short-term over-bought condition.

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Currency market review (weekly) after 17th February, 2012.

2012-02-17T22:22:00.000-08:00

Chinese news affectedthe EURO this week but Greeceissue was the major contributor. Market is discounting that Europeanauthorities may release the bail-out fund for Greece on 20^th February.

Currencies	17th Feb, 2012	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)

USD	79.331	0.41	0.1
EURO/USD	1.314	-0.38	0.23
AUD/USD	1.071	0.37	-0.93
USD/JPY	79.36	2.14	1.46
USD/RUPEE	49.21	-0.87	1.39
Swiss FRANC	0.918	0.88	-1.09
S.African RAND	7.727	-0.21	3.05
Brazilian REAL	1.714	-0.75	0.69
Mexican PESO	12.788	-0.06	1.19

AUD rose afterbetter employment report. Asian currencies dropped after Moody’s downgrade,foreign inflows are also a matter for these nations. Stimulus of bank of Japan helpedYEN to drop against dollar.

Currency marketforecast for coming week.

EURO is not showing any big moves in eitherdirection, look like it is waiting for Greece outcomes. In coming days itis expected to move according with the outcomes from Greece. So if it breaks 1.34 thenit has a chance to test up to 1.40 level. In the down side it may again test1.27 level and that 1.15 level is still open for it. I think if Greece givessome good solution then it may not test that 1.15 level.

For AUD, Iwill be looking to 1.08 level. I still feel that if it breaks 1.08 levelconvincingly then it can go more in the upside. In spite of a big up moveduring couple of months, technical indicators say that it can go more. In thedownside it has immediate support at 1.06 and then at 1.04.

I am stillholding my view about USD. I have a feeling that this reversal may notgo more, and then it is making a pattern from where it can drop more in comingdays. Unless it goes above 81.50, I will maintain that view. Now if it reactson that pattern then USD’s next important level is 75, though it has initialsupports at 78 and then in 76.5.

During couple ofweek, I repeatedly said that YEN can break 78 level, this week it justproved it. Now I think it can go around 80-81 level. On the other side if itdrops then it will get resistance around 78.

If Swiss FRANCbreaks 0.91 then it has a chance to go up to 0.87 level. On the other hand itis facing hard times to cross 0.93 level.

Brazilian REALwas flat this week, still there are lot of uncertainties. It will get resistanceat 1.78. During last few months I was talking about that 1.90 level and movesmore in the upside, looking at recent developments I think it is too difficultfor now but option is still open. On the other hand that trigger point of 1.673is still open for it, from where it can drop more.

South African RAND was trying to test that 7.9-8.0 level but itclosed far below it. Look like it is again going to try lower levels. So in thedownside if it breaks 7.4 then it can go below 7.0.

[Weekly forecast forall currencies are given against US dollar. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for comingweek) means rise & drop in chartfigure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE : Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 17th February, 2012.

2012-02-17T19:12:00.000-08:00

Spanish andItalian Bonds ended better this week but things were not good in early days ofthe week when Moody’s downgraded different nations. These Bonds performedbetter in later days because of good expectation from Greece. Hearingabout the demands in Bond auctions, it looks to me that those are just defyingthe Moody’s cut, especially in the Portugal, where they sold 1.5 bneuros of 12-month Bill in lower yield than last auctioned in April, 2011.

Chinese statementabout participation in Euro zone debt problem reduced demand for safer assetsto some extent and in the later period it was hopes from bailout deal for Greece. USTreasuries were volatile this week.

YIELDs (US)	17th Feb, 2012	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)

2-Year Treasury	0.292	6.57	17.09
5-Year Treasury	0.862	6.29	5.19
10-Year Treasury	2	1.32	2.65
30-Year Treasury	3.142	0.42	0.29

5 & 10 yearUS Treasury yield has quite similar run up in last two days of this week,2-year US Treasury yield was flat in the later part of this week. I think thatgreater worry for US Fed is the reduction in Chinese treasury holdings inDecember, 2011.

Treasury &Bond market forecast for coming week.

Now Greek problemor better to say Euro zone debt problems are becoming very monotonous, as Isaid in past that investors fear that even Greek problems get some solutionthen who is next! So I think thistrouble will continue unless authorities see these as a whole. If temporarysolution comes then safer assets may face lower demands in coming days.

I want to watchboth 5 & 10 year US Treasury yields which are performing differently from shorterversion of US Treasury yields. It may be that they are indicating changes inscenario!

Last week I wastalking about a channel for 2-Year US Treasury Yield but looks like itis negating that. Now if it able to break 0.30 then it may get resistanceat0.35. During couple of weeks it is following a rising trend so it may reverseits course, then 0.24 will be its support.

5-Year US TreasuryYield has increased in last two days, so if it continues its move then it willtest 0.90 resistance level. But as I said in last week that it may be trying tocreate a falling wedge, so therefore it may fall. In the downside the immediatesupport level is at 0.80, if it breaks that then it may re-test 0.70 level.

If good environment comes then 10-Year

Treasury Yield will definitelytest 2.10 level in the upside. But if things deteriorate from here then it willlook for support at 1.90 level. From long time it is following a downward trendso if it breaks 2.10 then we may be getting a signal that it is trying to comeout from that trend.

I don’t know thatwhether it will take more time or not but 30-Year US Treasury Yield still has achance to break-out in coming days. In the upside that 3.40 resistance level isimportant for it. In the downside if it breaks 3.10 then it may test 2.90level.

I don’t know whattype of restructurings or swaps are coming for Greek Bond holders but thatmarch 20 deadline (of 14.5 bn euro) is coming close, where we may or may notsee the first sovereign debt default for Euro zone.

NOTE : Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

European Stock Indexes this week ended 17th February, 2012.

2012-02-17T18:50:00.001-08:00

INDEX	17th Feb, 2012	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)

U.K. - FTSE	5905.07	0.9	-0.82
BELGIUM - BEL20	2280.8	2.24	-3.2
DENMARK - COPEN.	450.81	2.99	1.11
ESTONIA - TALLINN	604.52	2.97	5.6
FINLAND - HELSINKI.	6174.08	3.07	-0.53
FRANCE - CAC	3439.62	1.97	-1.59
GERMANY - DAX	6848.03	2.32	-1.09
GREECE - DJ GR.	685.2	5.01	4.82
ICELAND - ALL SH.	616.6	1.7	-1.88
ITALY - FTSE MIB	16547.21	1.13	-0.48
LATVIA - OMX RIGA	392.41	-0.09	1.35
LITHUANIA - VILNIUS	320.28	0.38	0.68
NETHERLAND - AEX	327.93	2.45	-1.91
NORWAY - OSE ALL	476.49	0.66	2.06
PORTUGAL - PSI 20	5616.02	-0.08	2.36
RUSSIA - TITANS	6492.92	2.84	-3.96
SPAIN - IBEX 35	8657	-1.59	-0.72
SWEDEN - STOCK .	345.03	3.2	-1.18
SWITZERLAND - SWISS.	6237.69	1.75	-0.37

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Asian Stock Indexes this week ended 17th February, 2012.

2012-02-17T04:39:00.000-08:00

INDEX	17th Feb, 2012	2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)

AUSTRALIA	4195.9	-1.16	-0.14
CHINA - Shanghai Com.	2357.18	0.22	0.93
HONG KONG - Hang Sg.	21491.62	3.41	0.13
INDIA - Sensex	18289.35	3.05	0.82
INDONESIA - Jsx	3976.54	1.64	-2.58
JAPAN - Nikkei	9384.17	4.88	1.3
KOREA - Kospi	2023.47	1.49	1.09
MALAYSIA - KLCI COM.	1557.15	-0.29	1.48
NEW ZEALAND - Nz 50	3289	-1.77	1.08
SINGAPORE - Straits	3000.59	1.37	1.44
TAIWAN	7894.36	0.41	2.44
THAILAND	1129.93	1.53	1.27

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 10th February, 2012.

2012-02-11T01:10:00.000-08:00

Recent liquidityflows are the main reason of this type of sudden rise in stock indexes. Therewere big inflows and those are still coming for some Emerging nations. I readsomewhere that even Bank of Englandis extending its QE program. What I think that lot of moneys are still due toenter into the stock market beside these. There are many investors out therewho missed this short-term up move in stock markets; they are just waiting foranother opportunity. I have feeling that stock indexes are following the sametype of movements which we saw in the beginning of 2009, may be!

INDEX	10th Feb, 2012	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)

Dow	12801	-0.47	1.59
Ftse	5852.39	-0.82	2.92
Cac	3373.14	-1.59	3.29
Dax	6692.96	-1.09	3.91
Australia S&P	4245.3	-0.14	-0.87
Shanghai Com.	2351.98	0.93	0.49
Hang Seng	20783.86	0.13	1.25
Sensex	17748.69	0.82	2.15
Russia :Titans	6313.34	-3.96	4.8
Bovespa	63997.86	-1.87	3.68
Argentina: Merval	2721.89	-3.16	-0.74
South Africa	33892.58	-1.44	1.45

Some of the Emergingnations are seeing 5 to 6 positive weeks in a row. I was expecting a reversaldue to currency factor but that liquidity inflows are negating all thosethings.

Trade deficit inUS has widened, where it fell in UK but Indian growth and IIP number were not good as well as the inflation figureof China.

Stock marketforecast for coming week.

Outcomes from the vote for austerity measures in

Greece

maydecide the market in coming days. On the other hand Emerging market currenciesare again showing weakness, so that can be a deciding factor for those inflowswhich Emerging nations are getting.

As I wasexpecting DOW has tested higher levels, right now it has a good supportat 12600 and then at 12400. I think worst level can be 11800. If situation in

Greece

improves, I will be looking DOW to test 13000 level from that support level (10day SMA) which it is getting now.

DAX was following same trend as DOW. Now itis getting support at 10 day SMA, but if any bad news comes from Greece then itmay break that. Initial support level for it is around 6450 and then at 6100.But for any good situation DAX is due to test 7000 level.

BOVESPA is getting resistance at 66000; duringlast few days move suggest that it is looking for some support at around 63000,now if it breaks that then it can get support at 60000. In the upside it can goto test its solid resistance at 68000. In past I said that pattern suggests itsmove up to 68000, so in spite of being in overbought condition any good newscan take it there.

Straits TIME is trying to test higher levels but Greece problemis becoming an obstacle for it. It can get initial support at 2880-2900 and theworse case for now is below 2800. But as I said in past that it is stilleligible for more moves in the upside and its pattern also supports that.

Shanghai Composite just followed my words, though it testedlevel below 2300 but it again went up to test higher levels. So now it has thechance to test level above 2400 but for any bad news it can test level around2200.

Reports due incoming days (from US)

Tuesday, 14^thFebruary, 2012 – NFIB Sm Bus Cnfdnc, Retail Sales.

Wednesday, 15^thFebruary, 2012 – NY State Mfg Index, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes.

Thursday, 16^thFebruary, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Producer Price Index,Fed’s Phila Bus index.

Friday, 17thFebruary, 2012 – Consumer Price Index, Leading Economic Indic.

I don’t thinkmarket is waiting to differentiate between orderly and disorderly defaults of Greece. Marketneeds some strong steps not only for Greece but also for otherproblematic countries. As there are better news coming from US and there arelot of expectations about cut in rates for different Emerging countries, sotime is coming when market may overlook these PIIGsssss. But one thing is surethat most of the markets are in overbought zone. I do not know when market isgoing to correct or this Greeceproblem is going to trigger that but one thing I know that market can remain inoverbought zone for long. So ………….

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Currency market review (weekly) after 10th February, 2012.

2012-02-10T20:51:00.000-08:00

Fitch remarksabout default of Greecemade EURO slide in early days of the week. But in the last day it was just theuncertainties over vote, which caused it to drop. I think lot of shortpositions has been created into the market. So if something better comes fromvote over austerity measures, I will be looking on those short positions afterTuesday when Euro zone finance ministers are expected to review the deal.

Currencies	10th Feb, 2012	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)

USD	79.004	0.1	0.03
EURO/USD	1.319	0.23	-0.45
AUD/USD	1.067	-0.93	1.03
USD/JPY	77.7	1.46	-0.19
USD/RUPEE	49.64	1.39	-1.37
Swiss FRANC	0.91	-1.09	0.11
S.African RAND	7.743	3.05	-3.06
Brazilian REAL	1.727	0.69	-1.61
Mexican PESO	12.796	1.19	-1.98

In spite ofdecline in retail spending, Reserve Bank of Australia did not lower the rate. Butlater in the week AUD fell as RBA lowered its growth and inflation forecast for2012. So after 7 consecutive weeks AUDdrops. Story is also similar for Asian currencies which dropped from 5consecutive weekly gains, without

Greece

problem there were some badmacro news from some of these Asian nations.

Currency marketforecast for coming week.

Still EUROis not getting enough resources to move. In the last day it reacted due touncertainties over Greeceproblems. In coming days it is expected to move according with the outcomesfrom Greece.So if it breaks 1.34 then it has a chance to test up to 1.40 level. In the downside it may again test 1.27 level and that 1.15 level is still open for it.

AUD dropped but it close above its initialsupport of 1.04 level. If sentiment becomes negative like this week then it canbreak 1.04 and test 1.02. On the other hand in spite of reacting on a bullishpattern it can go more in the upside, but for that it has to break 1.08 levelconvincingly.

USD was getting support at 78 level. I amstill holding my last week view that if this reversal goes more then it maymake a pattern from where it can drop more in coming days. I do not know howlong it will go in coming days but unless it goes above 81.50, I will maintain thatview. Now if it reacts on that pattern then USD’s next important level is 75.

Though there isconfusion about Japanese finance minister’s remark about specific level but I stillthink that YEN can break 78 level. Things will be different if it dropsbelow 76, but there market is expecting that cushion of 75.6 level.

Looks like thatBrazilian REAL made a base here at 1.72. That trigger point of 1.673 isstill open for it. But looking at the last days figure I think that it may testhigher levels in coming days, therefore it will get resistance at 1.78. Duringlast few months I was talking about that 1.90 level and moves more in theupside, looking at recent developments I think it is too difficult for now butoption is still open.

Reversal was duefor South African RAND, thought I amstill expecting it to test around 7.9–8.0 level. In the downside if it breaks7.4 level then it can go below 7.00.

[Rise and drop incurrency (under heading currency forecastfor coming week) means rise &drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it issame in meaning.]

NOTE : Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 10th February, 2012.

2012-02-10T18:57:00.000-08:00

German, Italianand Spanish Bonds showed mixed reaction this week. Actually the performances ofItalian and Spanish Bonds were better since ECB offered unlimited cash tobanks, this is also supported by lower Euro inter-bank offered rate. German Bundsreversed its position after 3 days as European finance ministers held back therescue package of Greece.

In the last dayof the week as stock markets around the world slid, so safe heavens like GermanBunds and US Treasury gained.

YIELDs (US)	10th Feb, 2012	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)

2-Year Treasury	0.274	17.09	8.84
5-Year Treasury	0.811	5.19	2.94
10-Year Treasury	1.974	2.65	1.58
30-Year Treasury	3.129	0.29	1.96

After couple ofweeks US Treasury yield is showing two consecutive positive weeks. Though inthe last day most of the US Treasury yields were different, but that was notenough to offset the selling of earlier days.

Treasury &Bond market forecast for coming week.

Somewhere I sawthat Fitch ratings said that Greecewill default even with the new package, it is sure that this new rescue packagewill give temporary relief to Greece.Market is getting nervous as we saw that Spanish Bond fell after the news of nodisbursement for Greece.All hopes are now based on that crucial vote for austerity measures. What Ithink that things are not going to solve even good news comes from Greece, becausethere are lots of things in the basket.

Beside Euro zonenews, operation Twist is going to create an impression on US Treasuries.Sometime I feel that if now Euro zone problem become worst then where these USTreasury yields will go! I think in this matter Germany may get a friend.

2-Year US TreasuryYield broke the upper boundary of 0.26 but it was unable to test 0.30. So if itgoes up then it will try to test 0.30 level. In the contrary it may re-test itsinitial support of 0.26 and then 0.24. Looks like it is creating a channelwhich says it may be in between 0.21–0.28 range, if it follows that.

5-Year USTreasury Yield was unable to break 0.90, so if it goes up then it will testthat level. Now 0.80 is a good initial support for it. If it breaks that thenit will test 0.70 level in the downside. Look like it is creating a falling wedge,so I will be looking on it in future.

10-Year US TreasuryYield was close to test its resistance of 2.10 but in the last day things weredifferent. If macro events improved then it may break 2.10 level and testhigher levels. In the downside it has a good support at 1.70–1.80.

30-Year USTreasury Yield is unable to test 3.40 level. Looks like it is following a wedgeduring couple of weeks, which suggest that in coming weeks it may break-out. Soif it follows that and as it is making small moves so it is expected that itwill be in the range of around 3.00–3.30. Now if it negates that wedge then ithas a support at 2.80 and a resistance at 3.40.

Everyone islooking for the outcomes of vote on austerity measures, but seeing theprotesters and the European authorities it is becoming very hard to understandthat whether we are really going to see any solution of Greece problems!

One of my friendstold me that it will be good for rest of the Euro nations, if Greece leaves Euro-zone!I don’t know probably ECB knows the answer!

NOTE : Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

European Stock Indexes this week ended 10th February, 2012.

2012-02-10T18:53:00.000-08:00

INDEX	10th Feb, 2012	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)

U.K. - FTSE	5852.39	-0.82	2.92
AUSTRIA - ATX	2174	-1.88	4.18
BELGIUM - BEL20	2230.78	-3.2	2.99
DENMARK - COPEN.	437.68	1.11	6.89
ESTONIA - TALLINN	587.09	5.6	1.96
FINLAND - HELSINKI.	5990.15	-0.53	3.23
FRANCE - CAC	3373.14	-1.59	3.29
GERMANY - DAX	6692.96	-1.09	3.91
GREECE - DJ GR.	652.49	4.82	2.91
ICELAND - ALL SH.	606.27	-1.88	0.92
ITALY - FTSE MIB	16361.04	-0.48	3.09
LATVIA - OMX RIGA	392.79	1.35	1.84
LITHUANIA - VILNIUS	319.08	0.68	1.52
NETHERLAND - AEX	320.09	-1.91	2.18
NORWAY - OSE ALL	473.36	2.06	2.17
PORTUGAL - PSI 20	5620.43	2.36	1.03
RUSSIA - TITANS	6313.34	-3.96	4.8
SPAIN - IBEX 35	8797.1	-0.72	2.36
SWEDEN - STOCK .	334.33	-1.18	3.36
SWITZERLAND - SWISS.	6130.66	-0.37	1.99

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Asian Stock Indexes this week ended 10th February, 2012.

2012-02-10T05:33:00.000-08:00

INDEX	10th Feb, 2012	2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)

AUSTRALIA	4245.3	-0.14	-0.87
CHINA - Shanghai Com.	2351.98	0.93	0.49
HONG KONG - Hang Sg.	20783.86	0.13	1.25
INDIA - Sensex	17748.69	0.82	2.15
INDONESIA - Jsx	3912.39	-2.58	0.74
JAPAN - Nikkei	8947.17	1.3	-0.11
KOREA - Kospi	1561.66	1.09	0.38
MALAYSIA - KLCI COM.	3348.13	1.48	1.17
NEW ZEALAND - Nz 50	1993.71	1.08	0.53
SINGAPORE - Straits	2960	1.44	0.06
TAIWAN	7862.27	2.44	6.1
THAILAND	1112.91	1.27	2.11

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 3rd February, 2012.

2012-02-04T03:17:00.000-08:00

Where the DOW is going!!!! The only thing I know that it is goingtowards northern direction. I do not know how long it will go! andhow much it will go!

INDEX	3rd Feb, 2012	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)

Dow	12862	1.59	-0.47
Ftse	5901.07	2.92	0.09
Cac	3427.92	3.29	-0.08
Dax	6766.67	3.91	1.68
Australia S&P	4251.2	-0.87	1.15
Shanghai Com.	2330.4	0.49	0
Hang Seng	20756.98	1.25	1.95
Sensex	17604.96	2.15	2.96
Russia - Titans	6573.51	4.8	1.51
Bovespa	65217.37	3.68	0.95
Argentina Merval	2810.57	-0.74	-1.26
South Africa	34386.97	1.45	0.57

Euro zone servicesector growth was better but unemployment rate is not good. On the other handChinese export demand and Spanish economic growth were not good.

Stock marketforecast for coming week.

market reacted positively in the last day due to that employmentreport but result from Greecedebt talk is still due. It is expected that in Monday markets will reactpositively on employment report. Without Greecethere is Portugalproblem that needs to consider. All the markets are in overbought condition andsome are heavily overbought, Ido not know whether any bad news from Greece is going to trigger the sell-off or not,but a correction is necessary for the health of the stock markets.

DOW has tested the level above 12800, stillchart is not showing any sign that we may see a huge sell-off in coming days. Soit may test higher levels, especially if any good news comes from

Greece

.Though I must say that it is in over-bought condition, so 12360 is importantsupport level for it and the solid one is at 12200. If any big sale-off comesthen it will find support at 11850 level.

DAX is also in over-bought condition, but Istill have feeling that it can test level above 7000. But crossing 7000 levelcan be a hard job for it. Now if any bad news comes it may find support at 6400and then at 6200. In spite of overbought I am positive about DAX, provided

Greece

news supports it.

BOVESPA is following the general trend of themarket, in spite of being in heavily over-bought condition. I think in 68000level it will face a solid resistance. BOVESPA’s moves in last few weeks suggestthat some correction is necessary for it. So if it reverses its course then itwill get support first at 63000 and then at 60000,

Straits TIME was flat this week, but I am still holdingthe view that if good news comes from Greece then it will test higherlevel, or better to say that it will act on its bullish pattern. If things gocontrary then it will get resistance at around 2750 level.

Shanghai Composite is overbought in this moment, but it cango more, may be around 2400. But if it drops from here then it will get supportat 2200, its immediate support is at 2280. If global market faces a sale offthen things may be different but without that I think even if it retests levelsbelow 2300 it has more chance to go up from there than be down.

Reports due incoming days (from US)

Tuesday, 7^thFebruary, 2011 – Consumer Credit

Thursday, 9^thFebruary, 2012 – Unemployment Claims

Friday, 10^thFebruary, 2012 – US Trade Deficit, Consumer Sentiment.

(This week it is a briefreview.)

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Currency market review (weekly) after 3rd February, 2012.

2012-02-04T01:49:00.001-08:00

Chinese factor helpedAUD to slide after reaching five month high though it completed its 7^thstraight week gains with the help of better US employment report.

Swiss FRANCweakened after some remark came from SNB. They have a reserve of nearly $280bn, now time will say how much they will use of that reserve if FRANC touches1.20 against EURO.

Currencies	3rd Feb, 2012	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)

USD	78.924	0.03	-1.65
EURO/USD	1.316	-0.45	2.24
AUD/USD	1.077	1.03	1.72
USD/JPY	76.585	-0.19	-0.49
USD/RUPEE	48.96	-1.37	-1.37
Swiss FRANC	0.92	0.11	-1.61
S.African RAND	7.514	-3.06	-2.49
Brazilian REAL	1.715	-1.61	-1.13
Mexican PESO	12.652	-1.98	-2.05

Global economicrecovery is showing inflows of fund in Asian countries; as a result most oftheir currencies rose this week. In spite of central bank interventionBrazilian REAL climbed against US dollar.

Currency marketforecast for coming week.

EURO is holding that 1.32 level, this isbecause no new news is coming from Euro zone or better to say

Greece

debt talk. It is in anuncertain zone, so in the upside1.38 is important resistance level for it butbefore that it has to break 1.34. If things remain same or better then it cantest higher levels. That 1.15 level is still on for it but if things improvethen it may not test that level.

AUD is in overbought position, so in spite ofa chance of going more in the upside it has also a chance to correct in comingdays. It has already performed in a bullish pattern which it formed during lastfew months; now it is still in another pattern, from where it can go more inthe upside. Here I must stay that 1.07-1.08 is very important for it. Now sinceit is in overbought position it may drop a bit so therefore 1.04 and 1.02 areimportant support levels for it.

USD has not shown much movement, now it cantest 78 and then 76.5 level. There is a chance of reversal; therefore it maytest level below 81.50. If that short-term reversal happen then it will make apattern from where it can drop more in future.

Japanese YENis still in the range of 76-78 level. I still think that it can break 78 levelin the above, but things will be different if it drops below 76.

It looks to methat Swiss FRANC may go more in the upside in coming days. There for it hasresistance at 0.94 and then at 0.96. In the downside if it breaks 0.91 then itmay test level up to 0.88 and then 0.86.

Brazilian REALbroke the support of 1.74 and it is gradually dropping towards its triggerpoint of 1.673. Now if it tests that level then it has a chance to drop more incoming days, because then it will complete a bearish pattern. But if it somehowreverses its position then it will get resistance at 1.73.

South African RAND broke a good support of 7.7, now if it breaks7.4 then it can go below 7. It is falling from long so some reversal may come.If it goes up then it may get resistance at 7.9-8.0 levels.

[Rise and drop incurrency (under heading currency forecastfor coming week) means rise &drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE : Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Treasury & Bond market review (weekly), after 3rd February, 2012.

2012-02-03T19:41:00.000-08:00

I read somewherethat Portuguese finance minister said Bond yields of secondary markets don’treflect fundamentals, as such these are not reflecting their progress. As Isaid in my last week review that Portugal may be next and their Bondyields are not performing like others. Bond yields of different Euro zonecountries like Italy, Spain droppedthis week and their auction showed better results. Demand for Bonds of thesecountries has increased; it reflects that QE-1 of Euro zone is working quitewell. I think to some extent environment is reflecting lower risk.

Better employmentreport effected US Treasury yields very much in the last day of the week; assuch 10-year US Treasury saw a big sell-off.

YIELDs (US)	3rd Feb, 2012	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)

2-Year Treasury	0.234	8.84	-11.16
5-Year Treasury	0.771	2.94	-15.65
10-Year Treasury	1.923	1.58	-6.56
30-Year Treasury	3.12	1.96	-1.35

Though there isno sign of official QE-3 from US Fed or Bernanke, but some regional fedauthorities have different opinions about it.

Treasury &Bond market forecast for coming week.

I think we maynot see much reaction from the Greek news, may be market is already discountingthat. As we can see that even in the last day Italian & Spanish Bonds wereaffected by the uncertainties from Greece. So things can continue incoming week until something comes from

Greece

In coming dayslong-term US Treasuries may be affected by the operation Twist. As I said inpast that US Treasury yield is giving one negative week then one positive week,so if it follows that then coming week will be negative for US Treasury yields.

2-Year US treasuryYield is following the same range of 0.22 to 0.26. If it follows its past trendthen it will drop in coming days. In the downside it has a good support at0.20, if it breaks that then it can drop more. If it able to break 0.26 then itcan touch 0.30 levels.

In the last dayof the week the move of 5-Year USTreasury Yield was good. Now it has a chance to test 0.90 in the upside but ifit breaks 0.70 then it will make new lows.

10-Year US TreasuryYield got good support at 1.80 ranges. Now it has a range of 2.1 in the upsideand around 1.70 in the downside.

3.10 is animportant level for 30-Year

Treasury Yield, if it breaks that then there is a resistance around 3.40 level.In the downside 2.80 is good support for it, though it has a chance to break thatlevel.

Outcomes from

Greece

are going to affect other problematic countries of Euro zone. I saw somewherethat Krugman said that

Greece

will default on their debt and he also suspect about leaving Euro. If thatbecomes true then we must also think about

Portugal

and irelandsssssssssssss

NOTE : Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

European Stock Indexes this week ended 3rd February, 2012.

2012-02-03T18:52:00.000-08:00

INDEX	3rd Feb, 2012	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)

U.K. - FTSE	5901.07	2.92	0.09
AUSTRIA - ATX	2215.62	4.18	5.29
BELGIUM - BEL20	2304.58	2.99	1.75
DENMARK - COPEN.	432.89	6.89	-0.12
ESTONIA - TALLINN	555.95	1.96	-1.39
FINLAND - HELSINKI.	6022.15	3.23	-0.91
FRANCE - CAC	3427.92	3.29	-0.08
GERMANY - DAX	6766.67	3.91	1.68
GREECE - DJ GR.	622.48	2.91	8.21
ICELAND - ALL SH.	617.86	0.92	0.61
ITALY - FTSE MIB	16439.62	3.09	2.01
LATVIA - OMX RIGA	387.57	1.84	0.13
LITHUANIA - VILNIUS	316.92	1.52	-0.28
NETHERLAND - AEX	326.33	2.18	-0.29
NORWAY - OSE ALL	463.8	2.17	0.76
PORTUGAL - PSI 20	5490.65	1.03	-0.93
RUSSIA - TITANS	6573.51	4.8	1.51
SPAIN - IBEX 35	8861.2	2.36	1.11
SWEDEN - STOCK .	338.31	3.36	0.96
SWITZERLAND - SWISS.	6153.31	1.99	-1.46

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Asian Stock Indexes this week ended 3rd February, 2012.

2012-02-03T06:47:00.000-08:00

INDEX	3rd Feb, 2012	1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)

AUSTRALIA	4251.2	-0.87	1.15
CHINA - Shanghai Com.	2330.4	0.49	0
HONG KONG - Hang Sg.	20756.98	1.25	1.95
INDIA - Sensex	17604.96	2.15	2.96
INDONESIA - Jsx	4015.95	0.74	-0.002
JAPAN - Nikkei	8831.93	-0.11	0.85
KOREA - Kospi	1538.77	0.38	0.77
MALAYSIA - KLCI COM.	3312.23	1.17	-0.16
NEW ZEALAND - Nz 50	1972.34	0.53	0.55
SINGAPORE - Straits	2917.95	0.06	2.35
TAIWAN	7674.99	6.1	0
THAILAND	1098.95	2.11	1.67

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.

Gold market review

2012-02-01T07:18:00.000-08:00

In my yearlyreview I told Gold is making lower highs and lower lows pattern, now it will beout of that pattern if it breaks $1800.

In fact there isa sign that Gold is making a bullish pattern though it is in early stage, sonothing is sure yet. I can say that USD has a contribution behind Gold’smovement this year. So in coming days both macros and USD are going to playvital role for Gold.

I am still holding my view which I said in my yearly review (Gold market review for year 2011 and Gold forecast foryear 2012.) that $1350 is a vitalsupport for Gold, as a matter of fact it even failed to break that $1450-$1500range. So unless it breaks those levels I am not negative about Gold,irrespective of the outcomes of Greecedebt talk.

NOTE : Please seethe disclaimer of this blog.

Stock market review (weekly) after 27th January, 2012.

2012-01-28T03:36:00.000-08:00

Fed has not announced QE-3! I think it may take little time to understandthe matter. Actually they already did it by giving cheaper dollar funds to banks,because without this it is hard to draw any conclusion. Less than expected GDPfigure supports Fed’s decision of holing interest rate.

INDEX	27th Jan, 2012	1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)	1/13/2011-1/20/2012 (%)

Dow	12660	-0.47	2.4
Ftse	5733.45	0.09	1.63
Cac	3318.76	-0.08	3.91
Dax	6511.98	1.68	4.25
Australia S&P	4288.4	1.15	1.04
Shanghai Com.	2319.12	0	3.32
Hang Seng	20501.67	1.95	4.72
Sensex	17233.98	2.96	3.62
Russia - Titans	6272.15	1.51	2.29
Bovespa	62904.2	0.95	5.35
Argentina Merval	2831.58	-1.26	4.14
South Africa	33895.02	0.57	2.35

Most indexes weregood this week; many major indexes are facing 4 to 5^th straitpositive week.

Japan

is not familiar about annual trade deficit but as I said in myyearly review that Japancan be the next big thing. This week unemployment data from Spain and economic activity report from UK were notgood, but German business confidence data was better.

Stock marketforecast for coming week.

Many Stock indexesare still to react on Fitch downgrade and US gdp figure, but I think thebigger impact will be the outcome of Greek debt talk. Stock indexes are actinglike a bull market but corresponding environment is not much encouraging. Letsay Greek debt talk outcome is good; I do not think that is going to stop alluncertainties, because already Portugalis waiting. Most of the stock indexes are in overbought zone, in spite of thatchart patterns are showing that it can go more, what I think that it will bebetter for investors to book some profit here.

DOW is finallytesting 12800 level, though it is in overbought zone but I still think that itcan test level above 12800. Indicators are not saying that it is in too muchoverbought zone, so it can go up more from here. But if it drops then it cantest initial support level around 12400 and the good one is at 12200.

Last few daysclosing were not good for DAX, but still I think that DAX has a chance to go upto 7200. In spite of little bit overbought condition I am positive about up moveof DAX, though it may face few negative days. Now it has a good support at6200.

BOVESPA has agood resistance at 64000, as I said in past week that it is in overboughtcondition and if it faces any correction then it can test 59000 level and theworst for now is 56000. But if it follows the general trend and goes up then Iwill be waiting to see that it breaks 64000 and is testing 68000 level.

So finallyStraits TIME is in 2900 level, which I said during last few weeks. Sometechnical indicators are saying that it is in over-bought zone, now I do notknow whether it is going to correct a bit from here but it is in a patternwhere from it can go up to 3200 level. Though this opinion will not stand ifmajor selling comes.

Reports due incoming days (from US)

Monday, 30^thJanuary, 2011 – Consumer Income and Spending

Tuesday, 31^stJanuary, 2011 – Home Price Index, ChicagoPMI, Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, 1^stFebruary, 2012 – Auto Sales, ADP Job Report, ISM mfg. Index, Construction Spending.

Thursday, 2^ndFebruary, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, Productivity.

Friday, 3^rdFebruary, 2012 – Employment Report, Factory Order, ISM Non-Mfg Index.

Euro leaders needto think about a comprehensive plan regarding all PIIGS countries, rather thana temporary solution. They need to think about Euro Bond or some other ways tocontrol sovereign debt market.

Though US GDPfigure in 4^th quarter is less than expectation but it is more thanprevious quarter, so that is not worse. What I think is bigger worry is that USFed has cut the growth forecast. At past they were telling to hold the ratestill mid 2013 but now they have changed it to late 2014. I feel there are lotsof discrepancies.

Look like marketis on a stand by position, waiting for something. I don’t know what isthat? Yet !!!!!

NOTE: Please see thedisclaimer of this blog.